China’s macroeconomic policy has gone to the focus of attention at home and abroad after it has achieved remarkable results in maintaining growth.
The Central Economic Work Conference closed on the 7th. The reporter interviewed relevant officials and experts at the first time. It is widely believed that this meeting set the tone for the 2010 macro policy: maintaining the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, and changing the economic development mode is urgently And improve people's livelihood to promote economic structure optimization and enhance economic development.
Signal 1: Focus on changing development methods
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that to do a good job in economic work next year, the focus should be on promoting the transformation of the development mode, truly uniting and maintaining the steady and rapid development of the economy and accelerating the transformation of economic development mode, promoting transformation in development, and making changes in the process of transformation. development of.
“The development mode is a fundamental issue that determines whether China's economy can sustainably develop. While maintaining growth has achieved important results, it has provided favorable conditions and environment for transforming the development mode.†Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that next year, the focus will be on promoting development. The transformation is an organic combination of long-term development goals and short-term growth goals.
For a long time, China’s economic development has relied too much on investment and exports, relied too much on the secondary industry, and relied too much on material consumption. The international financial crisis has highlighted the problem of China's economic development mode. After the short-term goal of ensuring growth is basically realized, changing the development mode is bound to become the focus of the next step.
"Into the 'post-crisis era', people's concerns have shifted from the previous economic growth rate to the quality, efficiency and sustainability of economic growth." Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomics Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that optimizing the economic structure and improving autonomy Innovative ability is the focus of transforming the development mode, especially to accelerate the cultivation of strategic emerging industries and increase support.
Signal 2: There is a deep meaning behind the double policy
After the economy has stabilized and rebounded, will fiscal policy and monetary policy be adjusted, which has become the focus of attention in the near future. The Central Economic Work Conference is clear: continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy; at the same time, grasp the strength, rhythm and focus of policy implementation. Focusing on people's generation is the common "focus" of fiscal and monetary policies.
"On the one hand, the domestic and international economic situation has improved, and on the other hand, the basis for recovery has not been stable. Therefore, there should be no major changes in fiscal and monetary policies, but fine adjustments should be made to consolidate the momentum of economic recovery and avoid new problems. Structural adjustment.†Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the forecasting department of the National Information Center.
The meeting proposed that fiscal policy should increase support for education, health, social security and other areas of people's livelihood and social undertakings; moderate investment growth, focus on completing projects under construction, strictly control new projects; increase monetary policy for economic society Support for weak links, employment, strategic emerging industries, and industrial transfer.
Xiao Gang, chairman of Bank of China [4.18 0.97%] pointed out that BOC will speed up the optimization of credit structure and continue to strengthen credit support for national key projects, small and medium-sized enterprises, affordable housing, major science and technology projects, and energy conservation and emission reduction projects. Strengthen research in strategic emerging industries and vigorously support the development of low-carbon economy. Resolutely reduce loans for backward production projects.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to handle the relationship of maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure, and managing inflation expectations, and consolidating and enhancing the economic recovery.
For inflation expectations, experts interviewed generally believe that inflation expectations should be concerned, but as long as the pace of money and credit growth is grasped, there is little chance of inflation next year.
Signal 3: Increase the supply of ordinary commercial housing to enhance residents' spending power
Recently, the volume and price of the real estate market have soared, and the real estate policy trend has attracted much attention next year. The meeting proposed to increase the supply of ordinary commodity housing, support residents' self-reliance and improved demand for housing purchases. Strengthen the construction of affordable housing such as low-rent housing.
Earlier, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council also pointed out in the inspection of affordable housing projects in Shanghai that the construction of affordable housing should be placed in an important position in the development of the real estate industry, and strong support should be given to the financial, financial and land policies to enable the majority of low- and middle-income people in the city. Live and work. At the same time, it is necessary to curb speculative purchases and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry.
According to the information revealed by the Central Economic Work Conference, low-rent housing, ordinary commodity housing and rural dilapidated housing renovation for low- and middle-income groups have been highly valued by decision-makers.
"Residents' consumption is still insufficient, which is the biggest structural problem in China's economy." Feng Fei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that by expanding the demand for consumption and improving the ability to withstand external shocks, it is the only way for a country with a large population of China. .
"Only by paying more attention to improving people's livelihood, the income of the people will be improved and the guarantees will be improved, so that they can provide a strong impetus to the expansion of domestic demand and provide a powerful impetus for the transformation of China's economic development mode and sustainable economic growth." Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Wang Tongsan, director of the Institute of Quantitative Economics, pointed out.
Signal 4: Relaxation of household registration restrictions in small and medium-sized cities to promote urbanization
Urbanization will play an important role in expanding the development space in the next economic development and structural adjustment. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to combine the coordinated development of urban and rural areas with the promotion of urbanization and vigorously expand the development space.
"Urbanization is an extremely important driving force for China's sustained economic development." Feng Fei said that China's urbanization level has increased by one percentage point, and more than 10 million farmers have turned into urban people. Steadily promoting urbanization will promote the investment growth brought about by infrastructure construction and the expansion of consumption brought about by the improvement of residents' living standards, and provide impetus for China to expand domestic demand and adjust its economic structure.
Wang Tongsan pointed out that urban and rural development is an important way to solve the fundamental contradictions facing our society. From the perspective of national conditions, strengthening the development of small and medium-sized cities and small towns is more relaxed in terms of resources and land, and is also more conducive to reducing the cost of rural population transfer to cities.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that the employment of eligible agricultural populations in urban employment and settlement should be an important task in promoting urbanization, and the restrictions on small and medium-sized cities and urban household registration should be relaxed.
Feng Fei believes that urban household registration is a prerequisite for enjoying urban public services such as education, medical care, and low-rent housing. The central government's major measures will gradually stabilize the flow of migrant workers between urban and rural areas, provide greater room for growth for consumption, and promote the solution of urban-rural gaps and maintain social stability.
Signal 5: Relaxation of market access and deepening reforms to increase development momentum
After the economy stabilizes and rebounds, the driving force for economic growth needs to be transformed from government investment to market-driven. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that the market should play a fundamental role in resource allocation and provide strong power and institutional guarantee for economic and social development by promoting reform.
According to Yao Jingyuan, more than 90% of current economic growth is driven by investment, while investment mainly depends on government investment, and the endogenous power of economic growth is insufficient. To strengthen the economic endogenous motivation, it is necessary to carry out reforms in related fields.
"The development of small enterprises is extremely inadequate. It is the main reason why China's current middle-income population is small and the economic endogenous power is insufficient." Zhou Tianyong, deputy director of the Central Party School Research Office, said that China currently has about 11 enterprises per 1,000 people, far less than developed countries. The level of about 45 countries is also lower than the level of 25 in developing countries.
Jia Kang, director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Finance, said that the key is to give national treatment to social capital investment. In addition to the special provisions of the law, social capital should be allowed to enter the basic and monopoly industries such as finance, railway, highway, aviation, telecommunications, electric power and urban water supply by means of equity participation.
In this regard, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly proposed to enhance the vitality and competitiveness of the non-public economy and small enterprises, relax market access, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of private investment.
The reform of resource prices and fiscal and taxation systems has always attracted people's attention. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to deepen the reform of resource prices and fiscal and taxation systems.
"Now is a good time to reform the resource price and fiscal and taxation system. Through price and fiscal and tax leverage, we will push the Chinese economy to a sustainable development path." Zhang Liqun said.
The Central Economic Work Conference closed on the 7th. The reporter interviewed relevant officials and experts at the first time. It is widely believed that this meeting set the tone for the 2010 macro policy: maintaining the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, and changing the economic development mode is urgently And improve people's livelihood to promote economic structure optimization and enhance economic development.
Signal 1: Focus on changing development methods
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that to do a good job in economic work next year, the focus should be on promoting the transformation of the development mode, truly uniting and maintaining the steady and rapid development of the economy and accelerating the transformation of economic development mode, promoting transformation in development, and making changes in the process of transformation. development of.
“The development mode is a fundamental issue that determines whether China's economy can sustainably develop. While maintaining growth has achieved important results, it has provided favorable conditions and environment for transforming the development mode.†Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that next year, the focus will be on promoting development. The transformation is an organic combination of long-term development goals and short-term growth goals.
For a long time, China’s economic development has relied too much on investment and exports, relied too much on the secondary industry, and relied too much on material consumption. The international financial crisis has highlighted the problem of China's economic development mode. After the short-term goal of ensuring growth is basically realized, changing the development mode is bound to become the focus of the next step.
"Into the 'post-crisis era', people's concerns have shifted from the previous economic growth rate to the quality, efficiency and sustainability of economic growth." Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomics Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that optimizing the economic structure and improving autonomy Innovative ability is the focus of transforming the development mode, especially to accelerate the cultivation of strategic emerging industries and increase support.
Signal 2: There is a deep meaning behind the double policy
After the economy has stabilized and rebounded, will fiscal policy and monetary policy be adjusted, which has become the focus of attention in the near future. The Central Economic Work Conference is clear: continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy; at the same time, grasp the strength, rhythm and focus of policy implementation. Focusing on people's generation is the common "focus" of fiscal and monetary policies.
"On the one hand, the domestic and international economic situation has improved, and on the other hand, the basis for recovery has not been stable. Therefore, there should be no major changes in fiscal and monetary policies, but fine adjustments should be made to consolidate the momentum of economic recovery and avoid new problems. Structural adjustment.†Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the forecasting department of the National Information Center.
The meeting proposed that fiscal policy should increase support for education, health, social security and other areas of people's livelihood and social undertakings; moderate investment growth, focus on completing projects under construction, strictly control new projects; increase monetary policy for economic society Support for weak links, employment, strategic emerging industries, and industrial transfer.
Xiao Gang, chairman of Bank of China [4.18 0.97%] pointed out that BOC will speed up the optimization of credit structure and continue to strengthen credit support for national key projects, small and medium-sized enterprises, affordable housing, major science and technology projects, and energy conservation and emission reduction projects. Strengthen research in strategic emerging industries and vigorously support the development of low-carbon economy. Resolutely reduce loans for backward production projects.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to handle the relationship of maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure, and managing inflation expectations, and consolidating and enhancing the economic recovery.
For inflation expectations, experts interviewed generally believe that inflation expectations should be concerned, but as long as the pace of money and credit growth is grasped, there is little chance of inflation next year.
Signal 3: Increase the supply of ordinary commercial housing to enhance residents' spending power
Recently, the volume and price of the real estate market have soared, and the real estate policy trend has attracted much attention next year. The meeting proposed to increase the supply of ordinary commodity housing, support residents' self-reliance and improved demand for housing purchases. Strengthen the construction of affordable housing such as low-rent housing.
Earlier, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council also pointed out in the inspection of affordable housing projects in Shanghai that the construction of affordable housing should be placed in an important position in the development of the real estate industry, and strong support should be given to the financial, financial and land policies to enable the majority of low- and middle-income people in the city. Live and work. At the same time, it is necessary to curb speculative purchases and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry.
According to the information revealed by the Central Economic Work Conference, low-rent housing, ordinary commodity housing and rural dilapidated housing renovation for low- and middle-income groups have been highly valued by decision-makers.
"Residents' consumption is still insufficient, which is the biggest structural problem in China's economy." Feng Fei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that by expanding the demand for consumption and improving the ability to withstand external shocks, it is the only way for a country with a large population of China. .
"Only by paying more attention to improving people's livelihood, the income of the people will be improved and the guarantees will be improved, so that they can provide a strong impetus to the expansion of domestic demand and provide a powerful impetus for the transformation of China's economic development mode and sustainable economic growth." Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Wang Tongsan, director of the Institute of Quantitative Economics, pointed out.
Signal 4: Relaxation of household registration restrictions in small and medium-sized cities to promote urbanization
Urbanization will play an important role in expanding the development space in the next economic development and structural adjustment. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to combine the coordinated development of urban and rural areas with the promotion of urbanization and vigorously expand the development space.
"Urbanization is an extremely important driving force for China's sustained economic development." Feng Fei said that China's urbanization level has increased by one percentage point, and more than 10 million farmers have turned into urban people. Steadily promoting urbanization will promote the investment growth brought about by infrastructure construction and the expansion of consumption brought about by the improvement of residents' living standards, and provide impetus for China to expand domestic demand and adjust its economic structure.
Wang Tongsan pointed out that urban and rural development is an important way to solve the fundamental contradictions facing our society. From the perspective of national conditions, strengthening the development of small and medium-sized cities and small towns is more relaxed in terms of resources and land, and is also more conducive to reducing the cost of rural population transfer to cities.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that the employment of eligible agricultural populations in urban employment and settlement should be an important task in promoting urbanization, and the restrictions on small and medium-sized cities and urban household registration should be relaxed.
Feng Fei believes that urban household registration is a prerequisite for enjoying urban public services such as education, medical care, and low-rent housing. The central government's major measures will gradually stabilize the flow of migrant workers between urban and rural areas, provide greater room for growth for consumption, and promote the solution of urban-rural gaps and maintain social stability.
Signal 5: Relaxation of market access and deepening reforms to increase development momentum
After the economy stabilizes and rebounds, the driving force for economic growth needs to be transformed from government investment to market-driven. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that the market should play a fundamental role in resource allocation and provide strong power and institutional guarantee for economic and social development by promoting reform.
According to Yao Jingyuan, more than 90% of current economic growth is driven by investment, while investment mainly depends on government investment, and the endogenous power of economic growth is insufficient. To strengthen the economic endogenous motivation, it is necessary to carry out reforms in related fields.
"The development of small enterprises is extremely inadequate. It is the main reason why China's current middle-income population is small and the economic endogenous power is insufficient." Zhou Tianyong, deputy director of the Central Party School Research Office, said that China currently has about 11 enterprises per 1,000 people, far less than developed countries. The level of about 45 countries is also lower than the level of 25 in developing countries.
Jia Kang, director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Finance, said that the key is to give national treatment to social capital investment. In addition to the special provisions of the law, social capital should be allowed to enter the basic and monopoly industries such as finance, railway, highway, aviation, telecommunications, electric power and urban water supply by means of equity participation.
In this regard, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly proposed to enhance the vitality and competitiveness of the non-public economy and small enterprises, relax market access, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of private investment.
The reform of resource prices and fiscal and taxation systems has always attracted people's attention. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to deepen the reform of resource prices and fiscal and taxation systems.
"Now is a good time to reform the resource price and fiscal and taxation system. Through price and fiscal and tax leverage, we will push the Chinese economy to a sustainable development path." Zhang Liqun said.
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