The mystery of Shihezi photovoltaic blowout

According to the National Energy Administration's news on November 5, as of the end of September 2019, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation nationwide was 191.9 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and the newly installed capacity was 15.99 million kilowatts. Among them, the installed capacity of centralized photovoltaic power generation is 13149 million kilowatts, an increase of 11% year-on-year, and the new installed capacity is 7.73 million kilowatts; the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation is 58.7 million kilowatts, an increase of 28% year-on-year, and the new installed capacity is 8.26 million kilowatts.

From the perspective of the newly installed capacity, in the first three quarters of 2019, the newly installed capacity in North China was 5.086 million kilowatts, accounting for 31.8% of the country; the newly installed capacity in Northeast China was 512,000 kilowatts, accounting for 3.2% of the country; the newly installed capacity in East China The capacity is 3.322 million kilowatts, accounting for 20.8% of the country; the newly installed capacity in central China is 1.809 million kilowatts, accounting for 11.3% of the country; the new installed capacity in northwest China is 4.308 million kilowatts, accounting for 26.9% of the country; the new installed capacity in southern China is 95.5 Ten thousand kilowatts, accounting for 6% of the country.

7 GW target

In the first three quarters of 2019, the national photovoltaic power generation was 171.5 billion kWh, an increase of 28% year-on-year; the amount of abandoned photovoltaics was 3.25 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 750 million kWh; the abandoned light rate was 1.9%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point year-on-year. The amount and the rate of abandoned light are "double down." Abandoned light is mainly concentrated in Tibet, Xinjiang and Qinghai. Among them, the amount of abandoned light in Tibet is 250 million kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 230 million kWh, and the abandoned light rate is 20.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1 percentage points; the amount of abandoned light in Xinjiang (including the Corps) is 10.2 100 million kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 770 million kilowatt-hours, and abandonment rate of 8.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9 percentage points; Qinghai ’s abandoned photovoltaics amounted to 730 million kwh, an increase of 330 million kwh, and abandonment rate of 5.8%, a year-on-year increase of 1.8 percentage points .

According to the data released by the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, as of the end of September 2019, the installed power generation capacity of the Xinjiang Power Grid is 90.905 million kilowatts. Among them: the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is 10.216 million kilowatts, accounting for 11.3% of the total installed capacity. From January to September 2019, the total power generation capacity of the Xinjiang Power Grid Dispatch Caliber was 229.35 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. Among them, photoelectricity was 9.94 billion kWh, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year, accounting for 4.3% of the total power generation.

Although the rate of discarded light has declined, the rate of discarded light is still high.

Xinjiang is rich in wind and solar energy resources and has excellent development conditions. In recent years, with the strong support of the state, the Xinjiang Autonomous Region has continuously strengthened the development, utilization and planning guidance of wind energy and solar energy, and its wind power and photovoltaic power generation industries have developed rapidly.

In August 2019, the People ’s Government of Shihezi City, Xinjiang issued a notice of the “Shishi City Clean Energy Alternative Tackling Action Plan” (hereinafter referred to as “the Plan”), which aims to build a 7 GW photovoltaic power plant by 2020, with clean energy power installed capacity accounting for The ratio was adjusted from 4.26% to 51.89%, and the proportion of clean energy power generation was adjusted from 1.81% to 25.74%. . In response to the "plan", many industry insiders said that Xinjiang is still the region with the highest rate of abandoned light in the country, and that Shihezi does not have a suitable UHV transmission line. This plan sounds lack of feasibility. The 7 GW photovoltaic project is unlikely to be completely landed because the resistance to shutting down the thermal power plant is large, but partial landing is still possible. People familiar with the matter said to the media that according to the current scale of thermal power and hydropower in Shihezi, they cannot match the 7 GW photovoltaic project landing.

It is understood that Shihezi has an independent power system, and power generation, transmission, distribution and sales are all operated by the local wholly-owned state-owned Tianfu Group. Moreover, many local companies have built their own power plants to ensure their own power supply. In September 2018, the People ’s Government of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region issued a notice of "Three-Year Action Plan for the Autonomous Region to Win the Blue Sky Defence War (2018-2020)", requiring that by 2020, "Urban-Chang-Shi" and "Qui-Du-Urban" ”The total coal consumption of each city in the region decreased by 10% compared with 2015. It is clear that the above-mentioned regions will not add new coal-fired units, and the new electricity consumption mainly depends on the non-fossil energy power generation and external power transmission in the region, including Shihezi City. . It is reported that “Under the pressure of environmental protection, thermal power that has not reached the standard has been shut down.” In addition, it is precisely because of environmental protection pressure and coal restriction policy, Tianfu Group plans to increase the electricity price, and the electricity price for high-energy consumption companies will rise to 0.3 yuan KWh.

As we all know, the cost of using energy such as electricity and steam in the production of polysilicon accounts for a high proportion of the total cost. Information shows that the average electricity price of polysilicon production enterprises in Xinjiang is currently around 0.24 yuan / kWh. The low cost of electricity is also the fundamental reason why polycrystalline silicon companies such as GCL-Poly, Xinte Energy, and Dongfang Hope have settled in Xinjiang. The polysilicon enterprises represented by Daxin Energy and Hesheng Silicon are all located in Shihezi City. Currently, the polysilicon enterprises such as Daxin Energy and other polysilicon companies use the electricity sold by local power companies at a price of about 0.25 yuan / kWh. In the current situation where domestic market demand is lower than expected, polysilicon companies are facing severe pressure to reduce costs. For these high-energy-consuming companies, the rise in electricity prices will directly increase their production costs.

A little doubt

The heavy news that has been heard recently has pushed the "difficult to land" "plan" one step forward: "The 7 GW photovoltaic power plant project in Shihezi City, Eight Division of Xinjiang Corps has been started, and there are currently investment companies to contact the local government."

According to the latest data from State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd., the total installed photovoltaic capacity in Xinjiang was 9.516 GW at the end of 2018. Compared with the 7 GW target of a new one-time construction in Shihezi City, it does not exceed 2.5 GW.

Some people describe it as “the most ambitious photovoltaic installation plan in a single province in China ’s unprecedented history”. And this shock is indeed not unreasonable: according to the current cost estimate of centralized photovoltaics, the unit price per watt is about 3.5 yuan, and it is estimated that Shihezi City will usher in an investment of 25 billion yuan. The total GDP of Shihezi City in 2018 is only 53.78 billion yuan!

According to the annual financial report of Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co., Ltd. in 2018, the company's total installed power at the end of 2018 was 3173 MW, with an annual generating capacity of 14.156 billion kWh. The estimated installed capacity of Shihezi Electric Power was 3200 MW. Calculated at 3200 MW, 4.26% of which is clean energy, which is only 136 MW. According to the notice issued by Xinjiang in October 2018, "Implementing a Plan to Reinforce the Pollution Prevention and Rehabilitation Campaign", Shihezi City is a key pollution prevention area. Assuming that Shihezi City will be shut down from the end of 2018 to August 2019 and the new The increase in the net value of installed power of traditional energy is negligible. Still using 136 MW of clean energy installed capacity and 3064 MW of traditional energy installed capacity as the basic data of the city ’s installed power capacity from August 23, 2019, then based on "before the end of 2020 No new coal-fired power generation and own power plants will be added. To achieve the goal of “by the end of 2020, Shishi ’s clean energy power installed capacity will grow to 51.89%”, the new clean energy scale will be the same as the existing 136 MW phase. Canada will account for 51.89% of the newly added clean energy scale and 3200 MW. Even if the generation of petrochemical energy that fails to meet environmental protection standards is zero, the new clean energy installed capacity is only about 3.17 GW.

The new clean energy installed capacity includes photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower, which undoubtedly cannot match the goal of increasing 7 GW by photovoltaic alone.

Who will benefit

Whether it is a clerical error cannot be determined, but the short-term goal of 3 GW is determined. The addition of 3 GW of clean energy installed capacity means an investment of at least 10 billion yuan. From the documents successively released by the autonomous region and the Corps, it can be seen that the Shihezi city government "has a major political responsibility to win the battle of the blue sky. The division city must have the determination and courage to break the wrist of the strong men. "Co-governance, prevention at the source, and more effective implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions" cannot be doubted.

As the direct responsible unit of 3 GW photovoltaic power generation, the only legal power supply unit in Shishi, Tianfu Energy may become the direct owner of the 3 GW photovoltaic power station, and will also be directly responsible for the investment of 10 billion yuan. As a result, on the one hand, "According to the" Alternative Plan ", the company embarked on the 17 key major industries of the" one enterprise, one price "of the company's power grid according to the industrial electricity price of 0.3338 yuan / kWh (hereinafter referred to as" new electricity price ") Electricity companies negotiate and re-sign electricity agreements to implement the new electricity price. The new electricity price is about 0.06 yuan / kWh higher than the average electricity price of the key industrial enterprises with "one enterprise and one price". After adjusting the electricity price in accordance with the "Alternative Plan", Combined with the forecast of electricity consumption by 17 key large-scale industrial power companies in the same period last year, the company's electricity revenue will increase by approximately 144 million yuan in 2019 after this adjustment. "In addition, as the owner of the 3 GW power plant, Tianfu Energy may increase from 10 billion yuan Benefit from yuan investment. Because, as long as the consumption is guaranteed, the bidding of 0.25 yuan / kWh photovoltaic project is completely profitable in Xinjiang. At the same time, those who are about to shut down 500 MW to 1000 MW of self-provided power plants under environmental protection requirements will also provide more space for clean energy to fill the gap, and this part of the new turnover and profits are also very considerable.

In addition, the installed capacity of 3 GW, accounting for 7% of the country and 3% of the world, will also greatly attract the attention of the national photovoltaic companies, not only local companies such as TBEA, Sungrow Dentsu, Tianfu Aluminum, Tianwei Group Opportunity is coming, large central enterprises may be able to take advantage of this opportunity to get a slice of the pie.