"Not only worrying about not getting orders, but also worrying that even if you take the order, you can't earn money." Although it has recovered from the impact of the international financial crisis, He Yuan (pseudonym), general manager of a foundry company in Shenzhen, is The development prospects are still worried. In an interview with NewsWeek, he said, “This is not a problem faced by one of its companies. There are similar situations in many processing trade enterprises in Shenzhen.†“The work done is very simple. There is not much technical content, so a company can do it, so the competition is very fierce. In order to survive, the company can only reduce profits and fight price wars. According to his estimation, the profit margin of local processing trade enterprises will generally not exceed 10%. "There are many possibilities that are only 5% or even lower." The more serious challenge is not here. “The economy is picking up. When the order comes, no one will mention the transformation and upgrading.†He admits that although the company is well aware of the development advantages brought about by this, “but the fierce competition makes the company neither energetic nor Ability to engage in research and development, technological innovation, and product upgrades." This is an embarrassing situation for Chinese export-oriented enterprises and market authorities that originally expected to move from "Made in China" to "Created in China" through the international financial crisis and out of the "trap" of low-end processing trade. In the interview, Mei Xinyu, an associate researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said, “The most unacceptable thing is that some development trends in processing trade today seem to fix China at the low end of the international division of labor and cannot be extricated. At the end of 2010, Suzhou and Dongguan were identified as the first pilot cities for the transformation and upgrading of the national processing trade. According to the reporter's understanding, the purpose is to change the situation of slow development in the past, and use the mechanism of the international financial crisis to find an effective path suitable for the transformation and upgrading of China's processing trade. But reality shows that the difficulty is bigger than imagined. If the poverty of the harvest is analyzed from the perspective of surplus, the processing trade can be described as “contributing hugelyâ€. Although the processing trade surplus has declined for three consecutive months since December last year, it still cannot change the reality that China's trade surplus basically comes from processing trade. According to data released by the Customs recently, in the first quarter of this year, China's foreign trade has a rare deficit of 1.02 billion US dollars, but the processing trade surplus in the same period still reached 77.71 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.8%. Statistics show that since 2001, China's processing trade surplus has increased year by year, especially since 2005, the processing trade surplus has developed rapidly. By 2008, the processing trade surplus reached 296.78 billion US dollars; in the 2009 financial crisis, the processing trade surplus remained at 2646.4. In 2010, this data increased to 322.9 billion US dollars as the global economy recovered. In contrast, in the past 10 years, general trade and other trades were almost all deficits except for individual years. In 2010, the deficit between general trade and other trade reached a scale of 120.7 billion US dollars. However, as Vice Minister of Commerce Jiang Yaoping said earlier, "The trade structure under the adjustment of globalization does not simply reflect who has a large surplus, and whoever makes a big profit." If according to the traditional methods of trade statistics of origin, A foundry laptop is exported to foreign countries. The export value in China is 300-400 US dollars, minus the cost of parts imported from the United States is about 150 US dollars, and the surplus is about 150-250 US dollars. This is an exaggeration of 5 to 6 times compared with the actual income of China of 30 to 40 US dollars. "The profits created by foreign-invested enterprises will naturally only flow into the wallets of foreign investors." According to He Yuan, the current situation is that "the surplus is recorded in China and the profits fall in Europe and America." If we change the current method of trade statistics of origin, according to the added value generated by each country, China's export scale and surplus will be greatly reduced. "Poverty for the harvest" - This is what the Japanese economist Guan Zhixiong described as the status quo of China's processing and manufacturing industry. The implication is that China's processing trade is "incremental increase." Foreign-owned dependence "Many people who have been to Europe and the United States will find that in these countries, the products made in China will be 10% to 20% lower than the prices of domestic products under the same quality. The Chinese people who travel will purchase a large number of these Chinese-made products and bring them back to China.†He Yuan told this reporter that this seemingly contradictory phenomenon reflects the current dependence of China's processing trade on foreign investment. “Domestic processing companies do not have their own sales channels, and product sales can only rely on foreign companies. Therefore, these goods must be exported first, then imported, and cost a lot of logistics costs, and these costs will eventually be passed on to Chinese consumers. He explained. The reason is that on the one hand, most of China's current processing trade is controlled by foreign-funded enterprises or joint ventures with foreign participation. The data shows that since 2008, the use of foreign capital in processing trade has accounted for half of China's actual use of foreign investment for several consecutive years. On the positive side, it attracts foreign investment; on the bad side, it shows the control of foreign investment in processing trade. On the other hand, the fate of domestic processing trade enterprises is firmly controlled by foreign capital due to the layout of the global industrial chain. The transformation and upgrading of processing trade enterprises, the most important is upstream technology research and development and downstream sales channels, but in these two important links, domestic processing trade enterprises rely heavily on multinational companies. Yang Liqiang, director of the China Foreign Economic and Trade Research Office of the University of International Business and Economics, said in an interview with this magazine that the bigger challenge is that with the increasing investment of multinational companies in China, the transfer of industries to China is accelerating, and the Chinese economy is included in it. The global division of labor system has led to China's structural industrial dependence, and has formed de facto industrial control in some important industries in China, affecting China's independent economic decision-making and adversely affecting China's economic development strategy. This is not without the lessons of the past. In the 1970s and 1980s, Latin American countries vigorously advocated opening up the market and developing an "extroverted" economy characterized by processing trade to promote imports and exports. Multinational corporations and international monopoly capital thus highly controlled the Latin American economy, and a large number of them will be formed. The transfer of profits and their return to the country led to the strange phenomenon of “growth without development†in Latin America. When “foreign capital†found a better place to invest and a large-scale evacuation, the economy of Latin American countries quickly fell into a downturn. “Cannot do†and “do not want to do†“There is a lot of difficulties in the transformation of processing trade enterprises. Independent research and development and brand creation require a lot of capital, talents and technical support. In recent years, although Chinese processing trade enterprises have developed rapidly, most enterprises still For small and medium-sized enterprises with limited production capacity, for them, the transformation and upgrading is just a 'beautiful beauty'.†In the interview, Yang Liqiang told this reporter that this is “can’t do itâ€. "There are also some companies that have a certain amount of capital accumulation and are capable of product upgrades and technology research and development, but the large amount of time and cost investment required for technology research and development and branding will discourage them." Yang Liqiang went on to say, "In case of technology." What if the innovation is unsuccessful? What if there is a problem with the capital chain? Not all entrepreneurs are adventurous. This situation is 'unwilling to do it.' "Whether it is 'can’t do it' or 'do not want to do it', To a large extent, the company does not have enough strength to undertake.†In He Yuan’s view, this aspect is the dependence of the existing industrial chain, which determines the profitability of China’s processing trade enterprises. It is also the result of disorderly competition between Chinese companies. "The best way to lower profits is to raise prices. In fact, many of China's export commodities now have a large price increase. But the problem is that Chinese companies are scattered sand, and the guilt is extremely serious, if only Some companies raise prices while others do not raise prices, and companies that raise prices may fail due to foreign boycotts.†He said that these contradictions should be coordinated through industry associations, but the reality is, “ Regardless of the official industry associations, the private industry associations can't manage things." The existence of export tax rebates has allowed enterprises to have a "price" in the "price war." "With export tax rebates, many companies feel that they have the profit of being able to 'bottom', so they repeatedly push down the offer in order to grab the order." He Yuan said. In his view, the consequence is to transfer the profits of the products to foreign buyers. "Foreign buyers are generally international giants. They are very familiar with China's tax rebate policy, and at the same time use their large orders to make domestic The exporting companies have killed each other and eventually pushed the prices to a lower level. Then these exporting companies will further dig out the cost space, such as deducting the wages and benefits of workers, reducing the cost of materials, and so on. "Without the end: When domestic export processing enterprises are in a dilemma of relying on national export tax rebates to "live", they not only did not win sympathy, but also provided excuses for some countries to adopt anti-dumping and other trade barrier policies. “Even in developed countries in Europe and the United States, because of the impact of labor costs, environmental protection and other factors, they are voluntarily abandoned manufacturing products, such as clothing, general consumer electronics, paper, etc., often face anti-dumping and countervailing duties. He Yuan pointed out that from the tax rate imposed by them, these measures often do not affect the protection of domestic enterprises, nor do they affect the export volume of Chinese export enterprises. “Obviously, this is purely Another heavy plunder. "A reasonable choice "can't be ruined." Yang Liqiang stressed that despite many problems, the development of processing trade at this stage is still crucial for China. "If only from the perspective of corporate profits, 'incremental increase does not increase' is established to a certain extent, but if 'li' is understood as the contribution of processing trade to China's industrial and social development, then this statement It is not completely correct." Yang Liqiang believes that although the processing trade enterprises have lower profit margins than core component manufacturers and brand owners, they have alleviated the employment pressure in China to a certain extent, and also bred a group of quite competitive manufacturing enterprises. . “The income is less than the non-revenue, the burden of trade surplus and high foreign exchange reserves is better than the pressure of the balance of payments crisis.†Mei Xinyu also holds the same view. In the future, for China’s processing trade, it is not “ The issue of "not developing" is the question of "how to develop." For processing trade, there are currently two popular views: shifting to the Midwest and opening up the domestic market. In this regard, Yang Liqiang believes that in the short term, there is nothing wrong with it. Industrial transfer can reduce cost pressures. Opening up the domestic market is also a more effective means of coping with the shrinking of the international market. "But both are the means by which processing trade enterprises can cope with the current challenges, not the goal of transformation and upgrading. If they still follow the original model, they will still be a The road to death.†In his view, the future of processing trade can only be transformed and upgraded, and three levels are proposed: First, focus on developing local brands and let the foundry factories use it for me, such as Lenovo Group as a local brand. The same is provided by the notebook OEM factory; second, strengthen the core technology research and development, especially in emerging industries, advance in technology, such as Huawei, ZTE model; Third, vigorously acquire global advanced technology and quality assets to create Chinese multinational companies that integrate and lead the industry chain. This is a three-level development level that outlines the staged goals of transformation and upgrading of processing trade. Mei Xinyu’s point of view is more pragmatic. In his view, at this stage, the transformation of China's processing trade is not to completely change the current international trade and international production system, but to change the income flow of this system. “If the processing trade is transformed and upgraded, 100% of the enterprises in China will be OEMs for overseas companies and overseas brands. If the scale of exports does not shrink after the transition, the market share in the world has not declined, and 95% of the companies are still doing OEM. But 80% of the amount is to OEM Chinese companies and Chinese brands, that is a huge success." Therefore, he advocates that in the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, the government should not force all enterprises to take the road of their own brands, enterprises also We can't all create our own brands, but we must do our best according to our own situation: companies that have accumulated enough strength can create their own brands in the domestic and international markets, and companies that do not have the corresponding strength, the government must promote and encourage them to have The strength of the independent brand enterprises supporting, OEM processing, holding the group to fight the world.
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