According to the latest monitoring data provided by the well-known domestic steel spot trading platform, in the past week (4.11-4.15), domestic spot steel prices continued to rise strongly.
The changes in steel prices in the suburbs of the Nisshin Shinkansen in the previous week were as follows: The price of steel in the Shanghai region rose sharply. The price in one week rose by RMB 80/ton. As of April 15, it was at RMB 4,740/ton; the price of steel in the Beijing region continued to rebound, as of April 15 The daily price was 4970 yuan/ton, and the quotations were raised by 60 yuan/ton from last Friday. The price of steel in the Guangzhou region was obviously higher. The price in one week was raised by 90 yuan/ton. As of April 15, it was reported at 5050 yuan/ton.
According to the data of the steel spot trading platform of the Nisshin Shinkansen Steel Group, as of April 15, the average price of 25mm secondary rebar for major products in major domestic markets was at 4,943 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton from last Friday; the average price of 6.5mm high-line was At 4849 yuan/ton, it was up 64 yuan/ton from last Friday. Taken together, the national average price fell from the high of 4,988 yuan/ton on February 11 and the lowest point appeared at 4,733 yuan/ton on March 11, followed by repeated shocks, and now it has recovered to 4,943 yuan/ton, although Compared with the highs at the beginning of the year, there is still a drop of about 1%, but it has recovered more than half of the previous lows. And due to factors such as strong demand in the north, Beijing's steel prices have now returned to the highs of the beginning of the year.
According to the data of the Nisshin Shinkansen trading platform, the pace of terminal purchases has slowed down this week after an apparent increase in sales volume in the three days after the holiday, and the average daily transaction level has dropped by 47% from last week. It can be seen that behind the rise in steel prices, the repeatability of the transaction is also evident. However, overall, due to seasonal factors, the trend towards better demand is still clear, especially in the first three months of the lunar calendar can be described as the peak season for the steel market, it is this important factor support, will appear before the end of April steel The city has such a strong rebound situation.
The factors affecting the domestic construction steel market last week mainly include the following aspects:
One is that the dominant steel mills are raising prices carefully. This week, the prices of leading steel mills in various regions have been raised. In particular, steel mills with prices set for ten-days such as Shagang, Yonggang and Shandong Iron and Steel have raised their ex-factory prices by 50-100 yuan/ton for the first time since March. Steel mills in Central, South, North and West regions Prices are also generally raised by 30-100 yuan/ton. It is worth mentioning that, compared with the sharp increase in the prices of steel mills at the beginning of this year, the increase of steel mills this week is relatively moderate, and the adjusted price of the main steel mills is also slightly lower than the local market prices, reflecting that steel mills are relatively cautious about the market outlook. psychological.
The second is raw material prices continue to rise. According to the monitoring data of the Nisshin Shinkansen line, as of April 15th, the price of plain carbon billet in the Tangshan area was 4,460 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton from last Friday; the scrap price in Jiangsu area was 3,680 yuan/ton, compared with last Friday. The price of coke in Shanxi was RMB 1800/ton, which was flat compared with last Friday. The price of 66% taste dry iron ore in Tangshan was RMB 1,470/ton, up by RMB 20/ton from last Friday.
The third is the national building materials inventory continue to lighten up. According to the monitoring data of the Shinkansen Shinkansen, the total inventory of construction steel in major cities in the current period was 8.83530 million tons, a decrease of 331,500 tons from the previous week, and the reduction in warehouse strength was 3.6%. Data show that after six weeks of lighten up, the current domestic building materials warehouse lightening rate has exceeded 15%, lighten up the rank of the top of other varieties, which can also be seen that the recent downstream procurement is more active.
From the perspective of steel production, according to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic crude steel production in March was 59.42 million tons, an increase of 9.0% over the same period of last year. The average daily output was 1,916,800 tons, a decrease of 22,800 tons. However, in the first half of April, the China Steel Association estimated that the average daily output of crude steel in the country will reach 1.7952 million tons, which will set a new record high. In other words, due to the recent rise in steel prices, the steel mills' capacity utilization rate is still rising, which will exert pressure on the later inventory digestion.
Xi Chuan Shinkansen chief analyst Liu Qiuping introduced that at present there are several factors that will affect the future market trend, it is worth attention:
First, CPI hit a new 32-month high. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was 963.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. In the first quarter, consumer prices rose by 5.0% year-on-year, of which consumer prices in March rose by 5.4% year-on-year to a 32-month high. With the establishment of a high inflation rate, the central bank’s monetary policy will inevitably remain tight.
Second, the discount rate of acceptance ** continued to decline. Although the monetary policy tends to tighten, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio 10 times in a row since last year, but the interbank market interest rate has continued to fall, indicating that the funding side is still easing. According to the data monitored by the Shinkansen Shinkansen, on April 14th, the discount rate for the Shanghai Stock Exchange's acceptance of ** monthly was 5.5‰, a 3.6% fall from 5.71‰ on April 1, which was the fifth consecutive week of decline.
Third, investment in fixed assets maintained rapid growth. According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the investment in fixed assets was 3.9465 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.0%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.73%. In the first quarter, the national investment in real estate development was 884.6 billion yuan, an increase of 34.1% year-on-year. Among them, residential investment 625.3 billion yuan, an increase of 37.4%. The data shows that high investment in fixed asset investment, especially real estate investment, still has certain support for steel consumption.
The changes in steel prices in the suburbs of the Nisshin Shinkansen in the previous week were as follows: The price of steel in the Shanghai region rose sharply. The price in one week rose by RMB 80/ton. As of April 15, it was at RMB 4,740/ton; the price of steel in the Beijing region continued to rebound, as of April 15 The daily price was 4970 yuan/ton, and the quotations were raised by 60 yuan/ton from last Friday. The price of steel in the Guangzhou region was obviously higher. The price in one week was raised by 90 yuan/ton. As of April 15, it was reported at 5050 yuan/ton.
According to the data of the steel spot trading platform of the Nisshin Shinkansen Steel Group, as of April 15, the average price of 25mm secondary rebar for major products in major domestic markets was at 4,943 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton from last Friday; the average price of 6.5mm high-line was At 4849 yuan/ton, it was up 64 yuan/ton from last Friday. Taken together, the national average price fell from the high of 4,988 yuan/ton on February 11 and the lowest point appeared at 4,733 yuan/ton on March 11, followed by repeated shocks, and now it has recovered to 4,943 yuan/ton, although Compared with the highs at the beginning of the year, there is still a drop of about 1%, but it has recovered more than half of the previous lows. And due to factors such as strong demand in the north, Beijing's steel prices have now returned to the highs of the beginning of the year.
According to the data of the Nisshin Shinkansen trading platform, the pace of terminal purchases has slowed down this week after an apparent increase in sales volume in the three days after the holiday, and the average daily transaction level has dropped by 47% from last week. It can be seen that behind the rise in steel prices, the repeatability of the transaction is also evident. However, overall, due to seasonal factors, the trend towards better demand is still clear, especially in the first three months of the lunar calendar can be described as the peak season for the steel market, it is this important factor support, will appear before the end of April steel The city has such a strong rebound situation.
The factors affecting the domestic construction steel market last week mainly include the following aspects:
One is that the dominant steel mills are raising prices carefully. This week, the prices of leading steel mills in various regions have been raised. In particular, steel mills with prices set for ten-days such as Shagang, Yonggang and Shandong Iron and Steel have raised their ex-factory prices by 50-100 yuan/ton for the first time since March. Steel mills in Central, South, North and West regions Prices are also generally raised by 30-100 yuan/ton. It is worth mentioning that, compared with the sharp increase in the prices of steel mills at the beginning of this year, the increase of steel mills this week is relatively moderate, and the adjusted price of the main steel mills is also slightly lower than the local market prices, reflecting that steel mills are relatively cautious about the market outlook. psychological.
The second is raw material prices continue to rise. According to the monitoring data of the Nisshin Shinkansen line, as of April 15th, the price of plain carbon billet in the Tangshan area was 4,460 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton from last Friday; the scrap price in Jiangsu area was 3,680 yuan/ton, compared with last Friday. The price of coke in Shanxi was RMB 1800/ton, which was flat compared with last Friday. The price of 66% taste dry iron ore in Tangshan was RMB 1,470/ton, up by RMB 20/ton from last Friday.
The third is the national building materials inventory continue to lighten up. According to the monitoring data of the Shinkansen Shinkansen, the total inventory of construction steel in major cities in the current period was 8.83530 million tons, a decrease of 331,500 tons from the previous week, and the reduction in warehouse strength was 3.6%. Data show that after six weeks of lighten up, the current domestic building materials warehouse lightening rate has exceeded 15%, lighten up the rank of the top of other varieties, which can also be seen that the recent downstream procurement is more active.
From the perspective of steel production, according to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic crude steel production in March was 59.42 million tons, an increase of 9.0% over the same period of last year. The average daily output was 1,916,800 tons, a decrease of 22,800 tons. However, in the first half of April, the China Steel Association estimated that the average daily output of crude steel in the country will reach 1.7952 million tons, which will set a new record high. In other words, due to the recent rise in steel prices, the steel mills' capacity utilization rate is still rising, which will exert pressure on the later inventory digestion.
Xi Chuan Shinkansen chief analyst Liu Qiuping introduced that at present there are several factors that will affect the future market trend, it is worth attention:
First, CPI hit a new 32-month high. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was 963.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. In the first quarter, consumer prices rose by 5.0% year-on-year, of which consumer prices in March rose by 5.4% year-on-year to a 32-month high. With the establishment of a high inflation rate, the central bank’s monetary policy will inevitably remain tight.
Second, the discount rate of acceptance ** continued to decline. Although the monetary policy tends to tighten, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio 10 times in a row since last year, but the interbank market interest rate has continued to fall, indicating that the funding side is still easing. According to the data monitored by the Shinkansen Shinkansen, on April 14th, the discount rate for the Shanghai Stock Exchange's acceptance of ** monthly was 5.5‰, a 3.6% fall from 5.71‰ on April 1, which was the fifth consecutive week of decline.
Third, investment in fixed assets maintained rapid growth. According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the investment in fixed assets was 3.9465 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.0%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.73%. In the first quarter, the national investment in real estate development was 884.6 billion yuan, an increase of 34.1% year-on-year. Among them, residential investment 625.3 billion yuan, an increase of 37.4%. The data shows that high investment in fixed asset investment, especially real estate investment, still has certain support for steel consumption.
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