On the first trading day of 2012, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the intraday exchange rate of the China Foreign Exchange Trading Exchange once again set a new high since the exchange rate reform. Yesterday (January 4th), although the spot closing price fell slightly, but still held the 6.30 line, the central bank's stability intends to dilute the expectation of RMB depreciation. 
Although the external appreciation pressure faced by the renminbi has been alleviated with the decline in the foreign trade surplus, the renminbi is expected to strengthen in the medium to long term relative to other emerging market currencies, supported by China's huge foreign reserves. The central bank's intention to maintain stability was obvious. On the first trading day of 2012, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center's RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.301, an increase of 8 basis points from the previous day, and the new high since the exchange reform. The spot exchange rate closed slightly lower yesterday, but still held the 6.30 mark, and the intraday exchange rate hit a new high in 2005. Since 2005, the RMB exchange rate trend can be divided into three-wave curve: in the three years before July 2008, the RMB has increased by 21%; after July 2008, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has locked at 6.83, with little change; 2010 On June 19, the central bank restarted the exchange reform, and the RMB resumed its appreciation against the US dollar. The median price has risen by more than 7% so far. In August 2011, the United States lost its 3A sovereign credit rating. Since then, the Fed has offered “reversing operations†in quantitative disguise. The European debt crisis has not been removed, the global economy is uncertain, global capital has withdrawn from Europe and emerging economies, and the vote of confidence has been voted on the US dollar. In the third quarter of last year, China's foreign exchange reserve growth rate and FDI growth rate both fell sharply. In October, the newly added foreign exchange accounted for the first negative growth since 2008, and the funds showed signs of outflow from China. In October, Hong Kong's RMB deposits showed negative growth for the first time in a year. The offshore market's interest in the renminbi has gradually diminished; coupled with the narrowing of the foreign trade surplus and the PMI data less than expected, there are more and more investors who are bearish on China and the renminbi. Multi-factor resonance has intensified the expectation of RMB depreciation. According to public information, from September 22 to November 30, 2011, the one-year NDF offer for overseas non-deliverable delivery market was only 6 trading days lower than the mid-day price, which was once the discount rate of the domestic spot market. 1%. The difference between domestic and overseas makes cross-market arbitrage prevail, exacerbating renminbi selling and affecting the domestic inter-bank foreign exchange market. On the 12 trading days after November 30, 2011, the RMB against the US dollar had 11 trading days hitting the lower limit of the trading range of 5ä¸é—´, which was the fourth consecutive day of the four-day limit in the December 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. It is worth noting that the expectation of RMB depreciation reflects some anxiety and anxiety about the Chinese economy. Zhong Wei, director of the Financial Research Center of Beijing Normal University, believes that the uncertainties of China's long-term economic growth tend to rise, and the arduousness of the medium-term transformation may be underestimated, and new leading industries have not emerged in the short term. Looking at the quarter-on-quarter, the Chinese economy is likely to enter a downturn of 10 quarters or even longer. The adjustment period of China's capital market may be more lengthy than expected. The recovery of the capital market may also be tepid because it does not have the possibility of a clear adjustment or even a shift in policy. Despite this, from the attitude of the central bank, it is clear that the RMB is not expected to continue to depreciate. In the first ten days of last year, the RMB continued to fall. In the same period, the central parity of the RMB rose by 0.4%, and the closing price of the US dollar rose by 0.2%. The appreciation trend has not stopped. On December 16, the central bank and the commercial banks sold a large amount of US dollars. The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar surged 400 points in the day, the biggest increase in six years. In the second half of the month, the central parity of the US dollar rose by 412 basis points to 6.3009, and broke through the 6.30 mark on the last trading day of 2011, indicating a central bank's intention to maintain stability, while at the same time diluting the expectation of RMB depreciation. 2012 RMB two-way volatility or increase It is worth noting that although China's foreign exchange reserves are 3.2 trillion US dollars, the external net assets are only 2 trillion US dollars, and the private sector holds less foreign exchange assets. CICC believes that the imbalance of the distribution of external assets between the government and the private sector will lead to a downward trend in the economy. If there is no government intervention, there will be pressure on capital outflows and the depreciation of the RMB. Therefore, judging the future trend of the RMB exchange rate depends on the attitude of the government. “The monetary policy of the past 10 years has been the impact of the inflow of capital inflows on internal liquidity. At some point in the future, a reverse process will begin, that is, capital inflows and re-allocation of private assets will cause the RMB to flow back to the central bank, resulting in foreign exchange. The deposits are declining or even negative, and the deposit reserve ratio is facing a downward trend. Other systems that restrict bank loans, the ratio of deposits to loans of commercial banks will be adjusted.†CICC analyzes that assets appear in the private sector. The reconfiguration, the central bank's policy may have two paths: one is to let the exchange rate depreciate, help the private sector to increase exports, win more trade surpluses, help the private sector accumulate foreign assets; the other is the central bank to buy yuan to sell dollars, Foreign exchange assets are transferred to the private sector to meet the needs of the private sector for foreign exchange. Zhong Wei said that the RMB exchange rate in 2012 is expected to be full of twists and turns. The expectation of China's macroeconomic pessimism continues, and the depreciation will not be fleeting and may last for several quarters. He pointed out that concerns about China's economy, reversal of global capital flows and the renminbi of offshore renminbi are the main reasons for the recent weakening of the renminbi. These factors still exist in 2012. The Royal Bank of Scotland research team believes that the two-way volatility of the RMB exchange rate in 2012 increased. The government may increasingly refer to market behavior to determine exchange rates, allowing for greater two-way volatility and avoiding over-regulation. From a technical perspective, the onshore exchange rate will continue to feel the pressure of the offshore market. However, due to restrictions on participants and fluctuation ranges, it is still possible to maintain the difference between onshore and offshore markets.
Although the external appreciation pressure faced by the renminbi has been alleviated with the decline in the foreign trade surplus, the renminbi is expected to strengthen in the medium to long term relative to other emerging market currencies, supported by China's huge foreign reserves. The central bank's intention to maintain stability was obvious. On the first trading day of 2012, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center's RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.301, an increase of 8 basis points from the previous day, and the new high since the exchange reform. The spot exchange rate closed slightly lower yesterday, but still held the 6.30 mark, and the intraday exchange rate hit a new high in 2005. Since 2005, the RMB exchange rate trend can be divided into three-wave curve: in the three years before July 2008, the RMB has increased by 21%; after July 2008, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has locked at 6.83, with little change; 2010 On June 19, the central bank restarted the exchange reform, and the RMB resumed its appreciation against the US dollar. The median price has risen by more than 7% so far. In August 2011, the United States lost its 3A sovereign credit rating. Since then, the Fed has offered “reversing operations†in quantitative disguise. The European debt crisis has not been removed, the global economy is uncertain, global capital has withdrawn from Europe and emerging economies, and the vote of confidence has been voted on the US dollar. In the third quarter of last year, China's foreign exchange reserve growth rate and FDI growth rate both fell sharply. In October, the newly added foreign exchange accounted for the first negative growth since 2008, and the funds showed signs of outflow from China. In October, Hong Kong's RMB deposits showed negative growth for the first time in a year. The offshore market's interest in the renminbi has gradually diminished; coupled with the narrowing of the foreign trade surplus and the PMI data less than expected, there are more and more investors who are bearish on China and the renminbi. Multi-factor resonance has intensified the expectation of RMB depreciation. According to public information, from September 22 to November 30, 2011, the one-year NDF offer for overseas non-deliverable delivery market was only 6 trading days lower than the mid-day price, which was once the discount rate of the domestic spot market. 1%. The difference between domestic and overseas makes cross-market arbitrage prevail, exacerbating renminbi selling and affecting the domestic inter-bank foreign exchange market. On the 12 trading days after November 30, 2011, the RMB against the US dollar had 11 trading days hitting the lower limit of the trading range of 5ä¸é—´, which was the fourth consecutive day of the four-day limit in the December 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. It is worth noting that the expectation of RMB depreciation reflects some anxiety and anxiety about the Chinese economy. Zhong Wei, director of the Financial Research Center of Beijing Normal University, believes that the uncertainties of China's long-term economic growth tend to rise, and the arduousness of the medium-term transformation may be underestimated, and new leading industries have not emerged in the short term. Looking at the quarter-on-quarter, the Chinese economy is likely to enter a downturn of 10 quarters or even longer. The adjustment period of China's capital market may be more lengthy than expected. The recovery of the capital market may also be tepid because it does not have the possibility of a clear adjustment or even a shift in policy. Despite this, from the attitude of the central bank, it is clear that the RMB is not expected to continue to depreciate. In the first ten days of last year, the RMB continued to fall. In the same period, the central parity of the RMB rose by 0.4%, and the closing price of the US dollar rose by 0.2%. The appreciation trend has not stopped. On December 16, the central bank and the commercial banks sold a large amount of US dollars. The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar surged 400 points in the day, the biggest increase in six years. In the second half of the month, the central parity of the US dollar rose by 412 basis points to 6.3009, and broke through the 6.30 mark on the last trading day of 2011, indicating a central bank's intention to maintain stability, while at the same time diluting the expectation of RMB depreciation. 2012 RMB two-way volatility or increase It is worth noting that although China's foreign exchange reserves are 3.2 trillion US dollars, the external net assets are only 2 trillion US dollars, and the private sector holds less foreign exchange assets. CICC believes that the imbalance of the distribution of external assets between the government and the private sector will lead to a downward trend in the economy. If there is no government intervention, there will be pressure on capital outflows and the depreciation of the RMB. Therefore, judging the future trend of the RMB exchange rate depends on the attitude of the government. “The monetary policy of the past 10 years has been the impact of the inflow of capital inflows on internal liquidity. At some point in the future, a reverse process will begin, that is, capital inflows and re-allocation of private assets will cause the RMB to flow back to the central bank, resulting in foreign exchange. The deposits are declining or even negative, and the deposit reserve ratio is facing a downward trend. Other systems that restrict bank loans, the ratio of deposits to loans of commercial banks will be adjusted.†CICC analyzes that assets appear in the private sector. The reconfiguration, the central bank's policy may have two paths: one is to let the exchange rate depreciate, help the private sector to increase exports, win more trade surpluses, help the private sector accumulate foreign assets; the other is the central bank to buy yuan to sell dollars, Foreign exchange assets are transferred to the private sector to meet the needs of the private sector for foreign exchange. Zhong Wei said that the RMB exchange rate in 2012 is expected to be full of twists and turns. The expectation of China's macroeconomic pessimism continues, and the depreciation will not be fleeting and may last for several quarters. He pointed out that concerns about China's economy, reversal of global capital flows and the renminbi of offshore renminbi are the main reasons for the recent weakening of the renminbi. These factors still exist in 2012. The Royal Bank of Scotland research team believes that the two-way volatility of the RMB exchange rate in 2012 increased. The government may increasingly refer to market behavior to determine exchange rates, allowing for greater two-way volatility and avoiding over-regulation. From a technical perspective, the onshore exchange rate will continue to feel the pressure of the offshore market. However, due to restrictions on participants and fluctuation ranges, it is still possible to maintain the difference between onshore and offshore markets. We focused on international export product development, production and sales. We have improved quality control processes of Crystal Roller Shutter Door to ensure each export qualified product.
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