Abstract Many netizens leave messages in the background, hoping to talk about the recent hot property market. I didn't want to comment on this topic. China's property market and stock market are two wonderful Chinese characteristics. They are two legitimate tools for sucking blood from the people. They have kidnapped too many interests...
Many netizens leave a message in the background, hoping to talk about the recent hot property market. I didn’t want to comment on this topic. China’s property market and stock market are two wonderful Chinese characteristics. They are two legitimate tools for sucking blood from the people. They have kidnapped too many interests and political factors. Their trend is inherently deformed and Abnormal. Many economic experts who predict that house prices will plummet, in the face of rising property market, have become cannon fodder and martyrs, such as the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Yi Xianrong, five or six years ago, through the evening to observe the lighting rate of residential areas To judge the surplus of China's property market, predicting that house prices will fall sharply, and now they are all afraid to speak out. An economist like Yi Xianrong, who has a villa in the capital to come out to warn the property market bubble, is a bit of a conscience. The most hateful is the economist who spoke, such as the chief economic analyst of a certain name of Ruixin. In the face of the continuous decline of the Chinese economy, it is said that China has entered the "post-industrial era", which is a typical lie to please the ruling party. I think a little bit about using the buttocks. In the face of more than half of the population is farmers, the urbanization rate is only 50%. The economic growth can only rely on the economy that is driven by the building. You told me that this is the "post-industrial era"? You can't fall because of other industrial production and export companies, and they all die almost the same, leaving a little consumer consumption, online shopping and service industry, the proportion is passively more than 50%, it is said that the transformation is successful, let us say It is a "post-industrial society", which is self-deception. It doesn't matter if the economist predicts that it is wrong, but you can't make a false statement.
Continue to return to the topic of the property market. Although many experts who sing the property market are afraid to speak out, one thing we must admit is that the Chinese house has been oversold for so many years of leaps and bounds. Now, regardless of the media or the official, it is customary to use 700 million square meters to summarize the current property market. Inventories, but according to the calculation of Beijing Normal University Professor Zhong Wei, this seriously underestimates the inventory of the property market, because this 700 million square meters is only for sale, if you add a housing outside the commercial housing, public buildings and self-built units, etc. , then the area may exceed 8 billion square meters, and only commercial housing is under construction and sold for more than 5 billion square meters.
According to the national sales area of ​​more than 1 billion square meters in 2015, these stocks will be digested in 5-7 years.
Since the real estate inventory is so large, the central government is constantly emphasizing the destocking of real estate, so why has the house price not been able to fall? Even in the third- and fourth-tier cities, there is no sign of loosening. I have learned from Marxist economics that there is such a scene. When the capitalist economy was in the Great Depression, capitalists would rather pour milk into the ditch and not let the poor drink cheap and free milk. This is the nature of the capitalist. of. Chinese real estate developers are more "indecent" than capitalist capitalists. Anyway, money is a bank, land is mortgaged, and the money for building a house is owed to migrant workers. It is necessary to die together. Anyway, it is not to cut prices.
Buying a house does not buy, sellers do not drop, property sales continue to be sluggish, housing prices remain high, such a stalemate lasted for the two years of 2014-2015, inventory can not go, the land can not be sold, then the government is in a hurry On the one hand, we must make big moves, on the one hand, let the house prices rise steadily, on the one hand, to stimulate buyers to hurry to buy a house, so there is a decline in the proportion of down payment at the beginning of 2016, taxes and fees, the central bank to release water and other measures. So we saw the explosive rise in housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other cities.
Of course, these are representations. What is the decision logic behind the representation? We must figure out that we will not see the flowers in the fog. We don't want to predict whether the price will rise or fall next time. "The bubble will inevitably break down, there will be no price forever rising." "Tokyo Hong Kong house price bubble burst, so Shanghai and Beijing house prices must be shattered", whoever said such a ghost, but no Any meaning, just like everyone will say that "people will always die" has no meaning. The key is that you need to know when someone will die, then that is the cow X, then you are the prophet.
Since we do not have the talent of a prophet, we can only judge the essence of this round of housing price rise from the logic of economic common sense and the logic of policy makers. In China, behind any big economic events and economic phenomena, there are big brothers who will reflect the intentions and will of Big Brother. Compared with the market, Big Brother’s resource mobilization ability is too much and too rich. The 5,000-point bull market in 2015 was because the big brother wanted to use the capital market to raise asset prices to achieve the goal of revitalizing the real economy and stimulating GDP, but the result failed. This also shows a truth, seeking things in people, things in the sky, although the big brother's resource mobilization ability is very strong, but it is not what you want to do can be done.
Why did Big Brother launch this round of house price rises at this time of de-leveraging, destocking, and capacity-consuming? After all, it is because the risks of the entire economic system and financial system are about to break out. On the economic front, PPI has experienced a 48-month cliff-like decline; foreign trade exports, which account for one-third of GDP, have basically disappeared or even become negative; most manufacturing plants are closed, and heavy chemical industries such as steel, chemicals, and cement are basically The whole army is destroyed; consumption is reluctantly supported, but this is only necessary for people to maintain basic survival. As the economy declines, consumption will fall sooner or later.
The economic downturn is inevitably transmitted to the financial system, and the biggest crisis in the financial system is not in the stock market, in residential housing loans, nor in corporate loans, but in local government debt. According to the data and estimates of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the size of local government debt is about 30 trillion yuan. This is only audit data, not financial data. The size of the local government's debt is only a matter of days. This is a black hole and a time bomb. If it is not handled properly, it is likely to have a systemic risk. In addition to the damage to the government's reputation, the entire banking system may collapse.
Moreover, more than 90% of these local debts exist in the form of government fiscal revenue credits or in the form of guarantees or mortgages of corresponding asset income. The financing targets are banks, trusts, securities, insurance and other institutions. The financing channels include financing platform loans, trust financing, and city investment bonds. After the tightening of platform lending supervision, the behavior of disguised financing in some places has become increasingly fierce. Many places have adopted disguised financing through trust loans, financial leasing, sale and leaseback, issuance of wealth management products, and construction of funds.
How to resolve these risks? At that time, policy makers had several ideas. One was that the central bank directly paid for the local government’s debt and printed the banknotes to the bank. Undoubtedly, this is naked quantitative easing. The result of this is currency depreciation and inflation. The second option is for local governments and banks to negotiate and extend debt. However, the extension is not conducive to the control of the total debt, perhaps the debt will get bigger and bigger, this program is also rejected; the third option is debt replacement, new debt, and old debt, but the time limit is extended and interest is reduced.
Now is the third option. The debt swap in 2015 is still relatively smooth. Some banks are more obedient because they have made a move with the local government for the first time. But as the size of debt swaps has grown larger, the game between banks and local governments has escalated. The Ministry of Finance requires that the local debt replacement and new scale in 2016 will reach 6 trillion yuan, and the replacement will be completed before the third quarter. Where conditions permit, it can be replaced in advance, and all can be replaced. Some places have been happy, and they have quickly replaced the previous debts.
But banks are not fools. Many of them are listed companies. They also have profit and performance appraisals. At this time, the bank has reacted. Your local government is in a good position. You are in breach of contract and you can’t afford debt. Now you have an idea to change it to lower interest, longer term, and gradually replace it, and ask for excess. Replace it in advance, then my bank will definitely not do it. As a result, many banks negotiated with the local government during the game, saying that you should not replace it, or give you an extension, and the interest is still the same. Through the design of the terms and the use of Enwei, the local government chooses to postpone rather than replace, and the bank actually wants to take the second option.
Seeing that real estate is not working, the land cannot be sold, the fiscal revenue is declining year by year, the debt cost is getting higher and higher, and the bank does not want to replace the debt. At this time, the local government can't keep up, and it will not work. It should be known that 95% of provincial capitals directly rely on the land to pay local debts, and most of the debts must be repaid by land finance. In order to make the debt replacement go smoothly, in order to make the whole risk mine not detonated, there is a high standard: the money is released, the asset price is raised or stabilized, and the loose environment of debt replacement is created.
The next step is what we saw. In January, new loans reached 2.51 trillion, a record high, most of which entered the real estate and investment fields. Then the mortgage down payment ratio decreased, transaction taxes and fees decreased; Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other first-tier cities Big rise.
Reducing the down payment is actually equivalent to increasing leverage. Why should we increase the leverage of real estate in the context of reducing leverage, de-capacity and destocking at the macro level? In the statement that Zhou Xiaochuan supported the real estate loan to increase leverage at the G20 Shanghai Finance Ministers meeting, did you hear the meaning of it?
Among the bank loans, mortgages are the best quality assets with the lowest bad debt rate. This shows that the Chinese people are the most trustworthy. They would rather save money, eat instant noodles all day, and are unwilling to default on the bank's arrears. The trader wanted to come and think, only this one can be used to improve the leverage, so various rescue measures have been introduced.
But we should understand that this rescue is not a real estate, but a local government, a local government's 30 trillion debt, the government's credibility and China's entire financial system. Only when the price of the property rises, the prices of other assets have risen or remained stable, the valuation of collateral has also risen, the government’s land has been sold well, the fiscal revenue has also risen, and the bargaining power of the bank has risen, and the debt swap has also increased. It went well.
The life of many local governments depends on the price of real estate. Once the house price falls, it means that the price of land and other assets will also fall. The land will not be sold and the price of collateral will fall. This will lead to government credit default and bank debt. . The following consequences can be imagined that once the local government defaults, it will become the defendant and the credit will be wiped out. Is this the government willing to see it?
There is a paragraph that profoundly reveals this embarrassment of the Chinese economy: in the past 24 months, we have experienced the salvation recipe that the United States has worked for:
1. The Keynesian government stimulates demand;
2. The Belt and Road of Marshall Plan;
3. Clinton’s Internet plus innovation;
4. Friedman's theory of money supply;
5, Reagan's supply side reform, oh, there is a melting system; finally, back to the familiar real estate and pull the economy...
However, this wishful thinking of Big Brother was fully utilized by the market. Some real estate agents did not hesitate to start a real estate market maker, set up a financial platform, colluded with some enterprises, and defrauded banks of low-interest loans by raising the price. In order to alleviate the pressure on funds, your government dares to put 3 times the leverage, I dare to put it 5 times, 10 times, the result is to prompt the price to rise rapidly. This result is obviously not what the big brother is not willing to see, because the result of any mad cow is bound to be a cliff-like decline, can the Chinese economy bear it? (Author: the original grass)
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