On the 17th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the growth rate of industrial added value in various regions from January to February this year. According to the accumulated data from January to February, the growth rate of industrial added value in most developed coastal areas in the east coast has declined. Most of the central and western regions have maintained a relatively high growth rate. Wu Qing, deputy director of the Bank Research Office of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that this round of economic recession is mainly concentrated in the developed areas of the east.
The adjustment was mainly concentrated in the eastern part of January-February, and the growth rate of industrial added value in most of the developed coastal areas in the east was negative, or only showed a slight increase. Beijing fell 6.4% year-on-year, Shanghai fell 12.4% year-on-year, Zhejiang fell 8.2% year-on-year, and Guangdong saw a slight increase, up 0.8% year-on-year.
“This shows that this round of adjustment is mainly concentrated in the developed eastern regions, such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region.†Wu Qing said, “These regions are relatively more closely linked to the world economic situation and therefore have a greater impact on the international economic environment.â€
In the eastern coastal areas, there are also a few regions with considerable growth rates. Among them, Tianjin ranked first, and the industrial added value increased by 18.4% from January to February. In addition, Jiangsu also achieved an 8% growth rate. “Tianjin is mainly driven by the construction of Binhai New Area,†said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of the Industrial Operations Center of the Industrial Bank.
Wu Qing said that the growth rate in many regions, including Tianjin and Jiangsu, is obviously benefiting from the impact of “industrial transferâ€. In this crisis, the government's fiscal stimulus is not very effective for developed regions. "This will also force developed regions to experience the pain of industrial adjustment and upgrading." Wu Qing said.
The growth rate of the central and western regions is relatively fast. On the contrary, industrial production in the central and western regions has grown at a faster rate. The data shows that the industrial added value of Inner Mongolia from January to February increased by 19.6% year-on-year, while that of Sichuan was 16.8%, while Guizhou's growth rate was the fastest, reaching 23.2%. "For these regions, the stimulus effect of the central government's investment is more obvious." Lu political commissar said.
In addition, on the 17th, the National Bureau of Statistics also announced the output and growth rate of major industrial products from January to February, as well as the growth rate of added value of industrial sub-sectors. Among them, the cement production equipment from January to February production growth rate reached 10.2%. The output of pig iron increased by 3.7% year-on-year, the growth rate of crude steel was 2.4%, and the output of steel products grew by 3.1%.
"These data, especially the increase in production of pig iron, crude steel and steel, have turned from negative to positive, reflecting the projects involved in the 4 trillion fiscal policy and stimulating these industries." Lu political commissar said.
However, it is worth noting that in the data released on the 17th, the output of fax machines dropped sharply, down 66% year-on-year. The political commissar of Lu believes that because there are fewer civilian fax machines, it is possible to look at the leopard from this data, which may imply that the current business activities in the market are still cold.
The eastern region still needs double-rate stimulus. Since the fiscal stimulus policy has obvious effects on the central and western regions, but the effect on the eastern developed regions is very small, then what is the driving force of the eastern coastal economy? The political commissar of Lu believes that the economic downturn in the developed cities in the east is mainly due to the downturn in the real estate market and the decline in export growth. Therefore, the important driving force for the recovery is the downward adjustment of interest rates and exchange rates.
“I think the 54-point drop in interest rates during the year is certain.†Lu’s political commissar said, “The 1-year deposit rate is likely to fall between 1.17 and 1.44.â€
For the export industries that the coastal developed areas rely on, if they want to ease the rate of decline, the Lu political commissar said that the exchange rate is the way to choose. "Because most of China's export products are necessities for consumers in Western countries, they are more sensitive to prices at this time. Therefore, exporting low-cost necessities is a strategy that China should adopt." Lu political commissar said, "The exchange rate is depreciated properly. It has a positive effect on stimulating the economy of the eastern coastal areas."
The adjustment was mainly concentrated in the eastern part of January-February, and the growth rate of industrial added value in most of the developed coastal areas in the east was negative, or only showed a slight increase. Beijing fell 6.4% year-on-year, Shanghai fell 12.4% year-on-year, Zhejiang fell 8.2% year-on-year, and Guangdong saw a slight increase, up 0.8% year-on-year.
“This shows that this round of adjustment is mainly concentrated in the developed eastern regions, such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region.†Wu Qing said, “These regions are relatively more closely linked to the world economic situation and therefore have a greater impact on the international economic environment.â€
In the eastern coastal areas, there are also a few regions with considerable growth rates. Among them, Tianjin ranked first, and the industrial added value increased by 18.4% from January to February. In addition, Jiangsu also achieved an 8% growth rate. “Tianjin is mainly driven by the construction of Binhai New Area,†said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of the Industrial Operations Center of the Industrial Bank.
Wu Qing said that the growth rate in many regions, including Tianjin and Jiangsu, is obviously benefiting from the impact of “industrial transferâ€. In this crisis, the government's fiscal stimulus is not very effective for developed regions. "This will also force developed regions to experience the pain of industrial adjustment and upgrading." Wu Qing said.
The growth rate of the central and western regions is relatively fast. On the contrary, industrial production in the central and western regions has grown at a faster rate. The data shows that the industrial added value of Inner Mongolia from January to February increased by 19.6% year-on-year, while that of Sichuan was 16.8%, while Guizhou's growth rate was the fastest, reaching 23.2%. "For these regions, the stimulus effect of the central government's investment is more obvious." Lu political commissar said.
In addition, on the 17th, the National Bureau of Statistics also announced the output and growth rate of major industrial products from January to February, as well as the growth rate of added value of industrial sub-sectors. Among them, the cement production equipment from January to February production growth rate reached 10.2%. The output of pig iron increased by 3.7% year-on-year, the growth rate of crude steel was 2.4%, and the output of steel products grew by 3.1%.
"These data, especially the increase in production of pig iron, crude steel and steel, have turned from negative to positive, reflecting the projects involved in the 4 trillion fiscal policy and stimulating these industries." Lu political commissar said.
However, it is worth noting that in the data released on the 17th, the output of fax machines dropped sharply, down 66% year-on-year. The political commissar of Lu believes that because there are fewer civilian fax machines, it is possible to look at the leopard from this data, which may imply that the current business activities in the market are still cold.
The eastern region still needs double-rate stimulus. Since the fiscal stimulus policy has obvious effects on the central and western regions, but the effect on the eastern developed regions is very small, then what is the driving force of the eastern coastal economy? The political commissar of Lu believes that the economic downturn in the developed cities in the east is mainly due to the downturn in the real estate market and the decline in export growth. Therefore, the important driving force for the recovery is the downward adjustment of interest rates and exchange rates.
“I think the 54-point drop in interest rates during the year is certain.†Lu’s political commissar said, “The 1-year deposit rate is likely to fall between 1.17 and 1.44.â€
For the export industries that the coastal developed areas rely on, if they want to ease the rate of decline, the Lu political commissar said that the exchange rate is the way to choose. "Because most of China's export products are necessities for consumers in Western countries, they are more sensitive to prices at this time. Therefore, exporting low-cost necessities is a strategy that China should adopt." Lu political commissar said, "The exchange rate is depreciated properly. It has a positive effect on stimulating the economy of the eastern coastal areas."
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