Short-term callback risk increases

Short-term corrections increase the risk of the recent few data published, and the lack of data available on Thursday is desirable. Earlier last week, the number of jobless claims fell by 39,000 to 310,000, which was low since October 8, 2000, but was distorted by seasonal adjustment factors. The market looks for other exciting points. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security said terrorists are planning a terrorist attack to undermine the U.S. presidential election. In response to the need for a technical rebound, the August crude oil price of the New York Mercantile Exchange soared by 3.2% on Thursday. The exchange rate market continued to adjust downwards and raised interest rate expectations. The US dollar intensified its decline. The dollar fell to a three-month low against the euro. The price of gold also rose slightly, reaching a high level in nearly three months. In the metal market, investors are trying to find reasons to continue rising. After the Collahuasi Copper Mine strike was cancelled, the market focused on a strike in the Becancour Aluminum Plant in Canada. One of the aluminum plant's electrolytic tanks may be shut down. Copper prices rebounded after the fall, copper and aluminum were further driven by the fund, but LME copper was still between 2690-2750 in March, LME aluminum station was above the key position of 1750, and the transaction volume was enlarged to 125,000 hands. The price of copper and aluminum has oscillated so far, and it is believed that the short-term positive factors have been consumed for some time. Now the fund has once again pushed the market and become the main force to keep rising prices, but the risk of callbacks is increasing in the short term. The incident on the strike has been hyped from last week to the present, and it is more or less overly reactionary. In the exchange rate market, investors are still quite insensitive to US inflation. On the one hand, they are optimistic about the US economy, while on the other hand they are selling the dollar under the short-term weak data. Therefore, the reason for the decline in the US dollar is not strong enough. In addition, China's economic data for June will be announced soon. Based on the strong previous regulatory efforts, the possibility of bearishness is even greater. The main reason for the early rise in aluminum prices was the continuous decline in inventory. In the past week or so, the decline rate of LME aluminum stocks has slowed down a lot, but it has been ignored by the market. After the short-term benefits such as the strike disappeared, the unfavorable factors and the profit-taking of the fund formed great pressure on the price drop. (Pang Ying)

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