Hot rolled steel market runs smoothly

Near the end of the year, the HRC market regained its momentum with a stable operation situation. Luo Baihui, an industry expert, predicts stability as the main factor, or a steady increase, but not much, and the apparently falling market will not occur.

According to the research, from February 1, 2013, the market price of hot rolled coils in the Shanghai market began to fall and fell to June 26 for 4 to 5 months from the highest point of 4250 yuan/ton. The lowest was 3,380 yuan/ton, down 870 yuan/ton. Only by mid-August did it stop falling and rebounded and rebounded to 3,660 tons before rebounding at 280 yuan/ton. However, by the end of October, it fell to 3320 yuan/ton again. In December, the market price of the hot coil was maintained at 3450-3500 yuan/ton. From the trend of the 2013 hot coil market, it can be seen that the price has fallen for a long time and the rise time is short. “It is difficult to rise and fall” This is the current steel An obvious feature of the market.

On the last trading day in December 2013, the market price of hot rolled coils on the Shanghai market tended to stabilize after a slight fluctuation in the previous period. Currently, the market price of hot coils in Shanghai is 2.75mm x 1250mm x C hot rolled (Q235B) quotation 3660 -3670 yuan / ton; 3.5mm × 1500mm × C hot-rolled (Q235B) offer 3580 yuan / ton; 4.75mm × 1500mm × C hot-rolled (Q235B) offer 3490-3520 yuan / ton; 5.50mm-11.75mm × 1500mm × C hot roll (Q235B) offer 3490-3520 yuan / ton. The overall stability, the price has not changed, not up, falling, entered the stalemate stage.

“In January 2014, the hot-rolling market will continue its current operating situation. The main tone of prices will be stable, and will not be too volatile.” In Luo Baihui’s view, the current situation of the market for hot-rolled coils is positive and negative. There are negative factors, the lack of support for price increases, and the price drop, there are many resistance. Specifically:

First, the market price of hot rolled coils has entered the bottom area, and the space for downturn is very limited. Due to the continued turbulent decline in the market price of hot coils in the early period, and a large drop, despite the slight rebound in recent prices, it is still at a low level. Compared with rebar prices, hot coil prices are lower than the abnormal price of rebar prices. Still exist. Right now, in Shanghai, the price of 5.50mm-11.75mm*1500mm*C hot coil (Q235B) is 3480 yuan/ton, while that of ø10mm-ø12mm grade III rebar (HRB400) is 3570-3600 yuan/ton. According to the normal price, the price of hot coils is generally higher than the price of rebar. The current price is reversed, obviously not normal. Therefore, Luo Baihui judged that there was limited room for the downturn in the price of the hot coil market in the later period.

The second is the situation of “strong screw weakness”, prompting steel mills to shift production capacity to long products and increase production of rebar and wire rods. It is precisely because of the unbalance between the market price of hot rolled coils and the price of construction steel that there is a phenomenon of “upside down”. Some steel mills will tend to long products and increase long production. According to statistics, in the January-November period of 2013, the supply of wire rods and bars in the domestic market was 133.729 million tons and 251.893 million tons, respectively, an increase of 8.2% and 12% year-on-year respectively. This will directly affect the HRC market. The increase in resources available for the HRC market will slow down.

Third, the factory price of hot rolled steel coils in January has risen or declined, showing differentiation. In December, leading plate companies Baosteel and Wuhan Iron & Steel successively issued plate price policies for January 2014, and the prices of hot-rolled and cold-rolled main products were all slightly increased by RMB 50/t, while Shougang and Angang were generally priced flat. The plate species is reduced by 100 yuan/ton. Nearly Japan Steel, Tai Steel, Ning Steel, Tiantie, Shanshan Iron and New Steel have issued price policies in succession. Some steel mills have raised the price of hot-rolled coils by 50 yuan/ton, under the background of increasing cost pressure and order differentiation. Different steel manufacturers have different attitudes toward the later period, and as a result, there are differences in the ex-factory price adjustments.

Fourth, the pattern of oversupply in the hot coil market has not changed, and it has contained a clear rebound in prices. In spite of the increasing environmental protection efforts of iron and steel enterprises and the elimination of backward and surplus production capacity, the production of steel products has declined, but the output of coils has continued to increase. Statistics show that from January to November 2013, the domestic supply of hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil volumes was 165.645 million tons and 63.215 million tons, respectively, an increase of 10.9% and 11.5% year-on-year, of which the resource supply in November was 1425.2 respectively. Ten thousand tons and 6.294 million tons, an increase of 10.9% and 15.2% respectively. The contradiction that caused the oversupply of the hot coil market has not been fundamentally alleviated.

Fifth, there is a shortage of funds at the end of the year, steel traders pick up goods, and the “winter storage” will not be strong, and the function of reservoirs in the circulation area will be weakened. Since the end of the year, steel trade companies generally faced the problems of insufficient funds and shortages. Most of them did not pick up stocks. There was no substantive start of the "Wu Chuan," and many companies had generally insufficient cash resources, which also contained a certain degree of containment. The price fell.

Judging from these factors mentioned above, for the latter part of the hot-rolling market, there is a favorable side and a favorable side. The game of the two determines the stability of the hot-rolled market in January and the price is mainly stable. After the new year, with the release of demand, prices may gradually rebound and return to their reasonable prices.