Domestic steel market continued to weaken

Recently, the domestic steel market continued to fluctuate and weakened. According to statistics, recently, the average price of 3mm rebar in domestic key cities was 3,385 yuan, which was 3 yuan lower than before; the average price of 6.5mm high-line in domestic key cities was 3,410 yuan, which was 1 yuan lower than before; the domestic key city 5.5mm was hot The average price of coiled coils is 3477 yuan, which is 7 yuan lower than before; the average price of 1.0mm cold plates in domestic key cities is 4490 yuan, which is 5 yuan lower than before; the average price of 20mm medium plates in domestic key cities is 3514 yuan, which is higher than the previous Fell 8 yuan.

In respect of raw materials, recently, the 2,300 yuan of 150*150 carbon billet in the Tangshan area fell by 10 yuan compared with that before; the price of acidic dry iron fine powder with 65 to 66 grades in Tangshan was 1,020 yuan, unchanged from before; the secondary metallurgical coke price in Tangshan area 1280 yuan, 20 yuan less than before.

The rebar main 1310 contract was opened at 3,459 yuan/ton on the morning of June 25. The price oscillated higher throughout the day, with a minimum of 3,415 yuan per ton and a maximum of 3,466 yuan per ton, which was closed at 3,456 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The price fell by 12 yuan/ton, with 3,419,640 contracts, 1,513,390 positions, or 159,9892 contracts.

In respect of steel mills, Hebei Iron and Steel Group issued a settlement price policy for construction steel products in June, including Tang Dynasty, Xuan and Cheng HPB300 material high-line settlement price of 3420 yuan, secondary rebar settlement price of 3350 yuan, and three-level seismic rebar settlement price of 3450 Yuan, the settlement of 3430 yuan. Handan steel high-line 3400 yuan, 2300 rebar steel, 3390 yuan plate screw.

After entering the month of June, the counter- pumping of steel prices has become more frequent and the market's pulling-up kinetic energy has also been significantly enhanced. In addition, the inventory of circulation market resources is at a relatively low level, which also makes the price increase not too burdensome. However, “when it is not a good time,” the steel price rebounded and met with a “liquidity crisis” and will continue to be affected in the short term. Coupled with the contradictory pattern of supply and demand in the steel industry, steel prices will continue to decline.

"The liquidity crisis will impact the entire physical industry. On the one hand, the dollar is strong, investment banks sing empty China, hot money to flee, fiscal deposits are raised, state-owned enterprises pay tax and profits, bank mid-term exams and so on make the inter-bank money face tension; on the other hand However, the determination of the new government to adjust the structure also disappointed the market. Although the central bank has partially loosened liquidity, but from the overall policy tone, it is still difficult to be optimistic.” Luo Baihui, chief analyst of Jinmo Steel pointed out that the lack of With the support of funds, capital-intensive industries such as the real estate industry, large-scale manufacturing, and the steel industry will not perform well in the short term, and this situation will only be eased by July and will be accelerated in the short term. Industry internal problems. At the same time, the lack of funds will also make it difficult for the capital market to reverse. In the current downturn of the steel market and lack of market confidence, the lack of pull factors may make the market difficult to recover. On the contrary, its own structural surplus will be brought More market impact. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will continue to decline.

Data from the China Iron and Steel Association shows that from January to May this year, steel companies realized a net profit of only 2.842 billion yuan, with losses up to 43.02%, an increase of 8.14 percentage points from the same period last year.

From the perspective of steel consumption, the apparent increase in crude steel consumption in China this year is the lowest value since the beginning of the new century. In the first ten months of this year, the apparent consumption of crude steel increased by only 1% year-on-year. The apparent consumption of crude steel is expected to be 679 million tons for the full year, an increase of approximately 1.8% year-on-year. Steel prices also fell sharply. In the first 10 months of this year, the overall price of domestic steel products had fallen to levels close to 1994, and the plate prices in August had fallen below the level in 1994. The "scissors difference" between the price of steel and iron ore and other raw materials eroded the profits of steel companies.

“This year's overall operation characteristics of China's steel industry are 'two highs and two lows’, namely high cost, high production capacity, low growth, and low efficiency.” Zhang Changfu, vice chairman and secretary-general of China Iron and Steel Association, recently made a The above judgment.

According to the latest statistics, in June this year, Hebei Province's steel industry PMI was 43.4%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, and was below the Ronghe line for five consecutive months, indicating that the steel industry in Hebei Province remained in a downturn and the whole industry appeared “June” "Snowstorm" the harsh situation. From the sub-indexes, the new orders index is 40%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating that the market demand is weak and there is still no sign of improvement. The new export order index was 40.9%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, which was a contraction for four consecutive months. Foreign demand remained sluggish. "At the policy level, in the second half of the year, the national level urbanization meeting will be held soon, and in addition, the policy will be issued in July. Therefore, the demand market for the steel industry in the second half of the year can be said to be 'cautiously optimistic'." Chief analyst Luo Baihui believes that the current objective situation has created a strong atmosphere for the urgency of structural adjustment of the steel industry. First, the macroeconomic tightening, credit funds gradually tightened; Second, the market downturn, the industry's profitability is not optimistic; Third, the iron and steel industry capital chain tension will become normal; Fourth, a variety of environmental protection laws to increase efforts to land, will increase The environmental management costs of steel companies, and the elimination of backward production capacity tasks completed one year ahead of schedule, will all accelerate the structural adjustment of the steel industry.

In Luo Baihui's view, enterprises above designated size in the steel industry have stepped up R&D efforts to upgrade their products, such as developing anti-corrosion steel products needed in the field of environmental protection equipment, adapting to market demand, and avoiding the homogeneity of competition in the past.