In the first half of 2012, the performance of the domestic and international copper market was not optimistic. In addition to the rebound in January, the copper price lacked further recovery. Even in the traditional consumption season, copper prices failed to open up the space and began before the off-season. Downstream. The overall performance of the copper market in the first half of the year was disappointing. For the second half of the year, we are still not optimistic, especially considering that the supply problem will be completely solved next year, and the pressure on copper prices will continue to increase.
First, the fatal point of the global economy is the lack of growth. The rapid rebound in copper prices at the beginning of 2012 has a lot to do with the active rescue of countries. What is disappointing is that the economic rebound trend at the beginning of the year has not continued. From March onwards, signs of weak global economic growth began to appear. In the United States, the number of new jobs in April and May was only 77,000 and 69,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 8.2%. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices all turned down, and the consumption of the US economy was more than 70%. . Both European manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries are in recession. At the same time, the European debt problem continues to spread and continues to impact the global economy. China is still in the dilemma of slowing housing prices and economic growth. In the second quarter, industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and social retail sales continued to slow down. The government said it would stabilize growth, but when housing transactions and housing prices rebounded in May and June, The People's Bank of China, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have all said that real estate regulation is not relaxed.
In the second quarter, the global economy showed signs of weak growth. We are not optimistic about the global economic outlook. After the bailout in 2009-2011, the world faces one of the biggest problems, that is, any industry is facing a serious overcapacity and demand. Serious overdraft, the fundamental problem of the global economy is the lack of economic growth points! Faced with the high debt problem, the national rescue measures are becoming more and more limited. Considering the current overcapacity and the over-expenditure of consumption, even if the introduction of new stimulus policies will have extremely limited effects on the entity, we believe that the future The global economy will choose between slow growth and a second recession.
Second, global supply is moving towards excess. First, global consumption growth has slowed down. The weak copper consumption in China in the first half of the year became the most important reason for the decline in copper prices. China's copper companies are under pressure. In the first five months of this year, the output of the air-conditioning industry, which accounts for 15% of copper consumption, increased by only 2.5%, much lower than the 39.4% in the same period last year. The power industry, which accounts for 40% of consumption, also did not perform well. Power equipment fell 8.7% year-on-year, 23.4% last year; transformers grew 2.86%, last year was 7%, cable was 10.4%, and last year was 27.4%. In addition, the operating rate of new homes in China fell by 4.3% year-on-year, compared with 23.8% last year. China's railway investment fell by 41.6% year-on-year, compared with 18.3% in the same period last year. It can be seen that in the first half of the year, China's copper consumption increased by less than half of last year, and the excess will exceed 400,000 tons. Due to the base, the growth rate will slow down in the second half of the year, but it is difficult to change the fatigue. China's consumption accounts for 40% of the world, and the Chinese factor will reduce the global copper consumption by at least 1.2 percentage points. Considering the economic recession in Europe this year, US growth has recovered, and global copper consumption growth will be reduced by at least 1.5 percentage points from 2011, estimated at around 2%.
Second, the copper supply bottleneck problem is being solved. Due to the decline in ore grade and production disruption, copper supply growth in the first half of the year was not as good as expected, but major producers around the world said that output will pick up in the second half of the year. Considering that there are fewer new labor negotiations this year, the new capacity is over 400,000 tons. It is estimated that the annual copper mine growth will reach 4-6%, and the production of refined copper will increase from 3% in 2011 to 3.5%. Therefore, the fundamentals of global copper will be basically balanced in 2012. In 2013 and 2014, the global copper mine new capacity will be released in a concentrated manner. The fundamentals of copper will end the shortage situation since 2003 and enter the era of surplus.
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