From 2013 to 2015, China's
PVC industry under the market regulation, the effective production capacity has been declining, the cumulative decline in the past three years is about 2.5 million tons, PVC production in 2015 for the first time negative growth, from the end of 2015, the domestic PVC supply and demand pattern gradually recovered To a relatively balanced state.
Taking the Inner Mongolia region as an example, it can be seen from the above figure that the overall profit of PVC in 2013-5015 is not good, and the loss is relatively serious. The average profit of PVC in 2013-2015 is only -75 yuan/ton, mainly because 2013-2015 The domestic PVC market is in a pattern of severe oversupply, with fierce competition and low prices. The days of PVC enterprises in 2013-2015 are not good. Under the overall environment of poor profitability in the PVC market, the market has entered the process of automatic de-capacity, and some of the backward production capacity has been gradually eliminated. In 2013-2015, the cumulative elimination of backward production capacity was 250 tons. about. As the market de-capacity has achieved certain results, the market supply and demand will gradually balance at the end of 2015, and the profitability of enterprises will obviously improve. The average profit of PVC in Inner Mongolia in 2016-2017 is 485 yuan/ton.
However, with the gradual improvement of the company's profitability, some of the early long-term parking devices or production delays have accelerated the capacity start-up process, and some companies plan to expand production. To this end, Jiuzhi Plastics Network has carried out statistics on the new capacity of the PVC plan for 2018-2019, as shown in the following table:
From the above table, we can see that there are still more domestic new capacity in 2018-2019. At present, the domestic PVC production capacity reaches 23.98 million tons, and the planned new capacity in 2018 is about 2.02 million tons. If the above production capacity is on schedule, 2018 The annual PVC production capacity will reach 26 million tons, which will become the new high point since 2013. However, the fact is that the planned new capacity is not likely to be put into production. Some of the planned production time is not clear at the end of 2018 or the driving time. Therefore, it is conservatively estimated that the production capacity will be around 25 million tons in 2018, and the supply pressure in 2018 or Increased slightly. However, in 2019, PVC will also have 80 tons of new capacity to be put into production. Xiaobian expects that PVC supply pressure will increase significantly in 2019.
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