The recent sharp drop in the cement price in Guangxi is mainly due to the fact that flood and waterlogging disasters have made it difficult for construction to temporarily lead to a sharp drop in cement demand. Affected by this, Guangdong's future cement market will also fall back. In eastern China, cement prices have risen steadily due to limited production and insured prices of cement companies. However, in the context of macro tightening, weak export growth, domestic investment slowdown, and real estate regulation and other unfavorable factors can only affect cement prices in the short term. The current situation of oversupply in the cement industry is still difficult to change. However, under the influence of factors such as winter coal storage, the supply of cement will be limited by raw materials and energy in the fourth quarter, while the fourth quarter will be the peak season for cement consumption, which will cause local supply shortages to increase cement prices.
Since the Digital Cement Network was informed that cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangxi and Guangdong declined after the “11th†holiday, cement prices in southern Jiangsu, eastern Hubei, and Zhejiang increased. According to industry analysts, the current cement demand is not alarming, and there is no sign of blowout, so the peak season of cement shaken the market does not change.
The recent sharp drop in the cement price in Guangxi is mainly due to the fact that flood and waterlogging disasters have made it difficult for construction to temporarily lead to a sharp drop in cement demand. Affected by this, Guangdong's future cement market will also fall back. Due to the severe flooding in southern Guangxi, the demand for cement decreased, and the lack of hydropower was greatly eased. Cement production resumed normal conditions, and stocks rose rapidly, causing most cement companies to lower prices.
On October 10, the cement price in Guangxi fell across the board, with a drop of RMB 30-50/ton. Taking the Nanning market as an example, high-standard bulk cement price is 360 yuan/ton, which is 30 yuan/ton lower than before, and other regions also have a range of 30-50 yuan/ton. Under the influence of the double typhoon rain and the “11†long holiday, the construction of real estate, railways, and other key projects in Guangxi has been suspended. Therefore, the cement price in the market may continue to decline.
Affected by the drop in the price of Guangxi cement, it caused some cement in Guangdong to fall. The prices of cement and clinker in Zhuhai and Zhaoqing of Guangdong Province decreased slightly, by 10-20 yuan/ton. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Jiangmen and other regions remained stable for the time being, but they may also decline in the future.
In eastern China, the price of cement has risen steadily due to limited production and insured prices, but it can only affect cement prices in the short term. The current oversupply situation in the cement industry is still difficult to change.
After the National Day, the prices of clinker and cement in cities such as Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Wuxi and Suzhou in southern Jiangsu were raised by RMB 20/t. Clinker is now in place price 370-380 yuan / ton, high standard bulk cement 400 yuan / ton. After the holiday, most cement companies stopped production according to the original plan of the restricted production agreement, which was the main driving force for price increase.
In addition, the price of cement in Zhejiang remained stable while the price of southern clinker increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton. It is understood that starting from September 20, cement companies in Zhejiang Province under the initiative of Southern Cement have stopped production. By now, 90% of the companies have been executing. In addition, through the suspension of production, the cement price of enterprises in eastern Hubei also rose by RMB 30-50/ton. However, under the background of macro tightening, weak export growth, slowing domestic investment, and regulation of real estate, the agreement can only have short-term effects. The current price of cement, the oversupply of the cement industry in the medium and long-term is still difficult to change.
According to the data, in August, the export orders index dropped sharply. Coupled with the expected slowdown in the European and US economies, the market generally expects China's economic growth to slow in the second half of the year. In addition, the main real estate control policies affecting cement are still under overweight. Although interest rates have not been raised again after interest rate hikes in early July, the central bank has introduced new regulations to freeze funds by 900 billion yuan.
In addition, the major investment data for August showed that the accumulative growth rate of investment in real estate investment, railway investment, transportation (roads, waterways, etc.) was 25%, -11.5%, and 13.6%, a decrease of 0.4, 10, and 2.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. , showing that demand has been weak.
The real estate industry is also not optimistic. Following the first year-on-year decline in sales in August, China Vanke (000002), the leading domestic residential development company, experienced a year-on-year decline in sales.
There was also a year-on-year decline in sales, including Country Garden (02007: 2.630, +0.15, ↑6.05), China Shipping (03383), Poly Real Estate (600048:9.32, +0.11, ↑1.19), and Longhu (00960). Ten real estate developers. "Jinjiu" appeared to shrink in sales of several large-scale housing enterprises, which was the first time in 2009.
From the supply point of view, cement investment has shown signs of resurgence in the near term. In the medium term, future supply growth will continue into 2013, and even if all backward production capacity is considered to be eliminated, the capacity increase in 2011 and 2012 will exceed 100 million tons. Moreover, the northwest and north China regions, where supply was mainly concentrated before 2010, have aggravated the imbalance in supply and demand in the cement industry.
In June 2011, the total investment for the new cement projects was 18.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 54.7%, indicating that cement investment is still overheated. According to statistics of Industrial Securities, the number of cement production lines under construction after 2010 reached 323, with a total capacity of more than 400 million tons. Excluding the elimination of outdated production capacity, the net increase in cement capacity nationwide in 2011-2013 was 166 million tons, 163 million tons and 35 million tons.
Cement demand mainly comes from real estate investment, central key projects, and new rural construction. Among them, real estate accounts for about 1/3 of the total, central investment accounts for about 20%, and new rural construction accounts for 15-20%. Although the country has pushed 10 million sets of affordable housing construction, the growth in demand in the future is not optimistic due to the impact of real estate under control, high-speed rail and other central projects.
Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently show that investment in real estate development in the first half of the year increased by 32.9% year-on-year, but sales of commercial real estate grew by 12.9% year-on-year. If real estate transactions continue to be sluggish and the regulation and control efforts are still not relaxed, the subsequent development of real estate will gradually increase. Weakened demand for raw materials such as cement and steel may begin to weaken in the second half of the year.
Although the construction of affordable housing has accelerated and cement demand has increased, the country has not had the financial resources to maintain the construction of 10 million sets of affordable housing every year. What's more, the impact of the protection of housing on the increase in cement demand is not significant.
According to the estimate of 0.2 tons of cement consumption per square meter of urban residential buildings in China, the average amount of cement for each type of affordable housing is estimated to be around 10 tons. In 2011, the increase in demand for the construction of affordable housing was 100 million tons, equivalent to the total cement output in 2010. The 5.35% impact on the supply and demand of the cement industry is not very significant.
From the previous quarterly statistics, the cement production in the fourth quarter averaged over 27% of the whole year, which was the most demanding period in the year. From the previous quarterly statistics, the cement production in the fourth quarter averaged over 27% of the whole year, which was the most demanding period in the year. Under the influence of factors such as winter coal storage, the supply of cement will be limited by raw materials and energy in the fourth quarter, and the fourth quarter will be the peak season for cement consumption, which will lead to a partial supply shortage and cement prices.
As of September 26, Qinhuangdao Datong Youmian and Shanxi Youmian were 885 yuan / ton and 835 yuan / ton, respectively, compared with last week, the price is not large, the port inventory of 6,209,300 tons, down 9.26% from last week.
In addition, the prices of Northeast Heiji and Jilin provinces in advance of winter storage rose again before the winter storage, which was a year-on-year rise of nearly RMB 200/ton, which is already the highest price in Xinjiang except Xinjiang. According to Changjiang Securities, Harbin P. O42.5 scattered to reach 500 yuan / ton; Changchun to 485 yuan / ton. At present, the average price in the Northeast has been ranked first in the country. In the second half of the month, the northeastern region will enter the off-season demand. Therefore, the price of Hei Ji provinces should be the last increase in 2011. The last price increase is more conducive to the adjustment of prices into the winter storage period. Judging from the market performance in the northeastern region this year, the 2011 winter storage price may change dramatically in previous years.
Since the Digital Cement Network was informed that cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangxi and Guangdong declined after the “11th†holiday, cement prices in southern Jiangsu, eastern Hubei, and Zhejiang increased. According to industry analysts, the current cement demand is not alarming, and there is no sign of blowout, so the peak season of cement shaken the market does not change.
The recent sharp drop in the cement price in Guangxi is mainly due to the fact that flood and waterlogging disasters have made it difficult for construction to temporarily lead to a sharp drop in cement demand. Affected by this, Guangdong's future cement market will also fall back. Due to the severe flooding in southern Guangxi, the demand for cement decreased, and the lack of hydropower was greatly eased. Cement production resumed normal conditions, and stocks rose rapidly, causing most cement companies to lower prices.
On October 10, the cement price in Guangxi fell across the board, with a drop of RMB 30-50/ton. Taking the Nanning market as an example, high-standard bulk cement price is 360 yuan/ton, which is 30 yuan/ton lower than before, and other regions also have a range of 30-50 yuan/ton. Under the influence of the double typhoon rain and the “11†long holiday, the construction of real estate, railways, and other key projects in Guangxi has been suspended. Therefore, the cement price in the market may continue to decline.
Affected by the drop in the price of Guangxi cement, it caused some cement in Guangdong to fall. The prices of cement and clinker in Zhuhai and Zhaoqing of Guangdong Province decreased slightly, by 10-20 yuan/ton. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Jiangmen and other regions remained stable for the time being, but they may also decline in the future.
In eastern China, the price of cement has risen steadily due to limited production and insured prices, but it can only affect cement prices in the short term. The current oversupply situation in the cement industry is still difficult to change.
After the National Day, the prices of clinker and cement in cities such as Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Wuxi and Suzhou in southern Jiangsu were raised by RMB 20/t. Clinker is now in place price 370-380 yuan / ton, high standard bulk cement 400 yuan / ton. After the holiday, most cement companies stopped production according to the original plan of the restricted production agreement, which was the main driving force for price increase.
In addition, the price of cement in Zhejiang remained stable while the price of southern clinker increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton. It is understood that starting from September 20, cement companies in Zhejiang Province under the initiative of Southern Cement have stopped production. By now, 90% of the companies have been executing. In addition, through the suspension of production, the cement price of enterprises in eastern Hubei also rose by RMB 30-50/ton. However, under the background of macro tightening, weak export growth, slowing domestic investment, and regulation of real estate, the agreement can only have short-term effects. The current price of cement, the oversupply of the cement industry in the medium and long-term is still difficult to change.
According to the data, in August, the export orders index dropped sharply. Coupled with the expected slowdown in the European and US economies, the market generally expects China's economic growth to slow in the second half of the year. In addition, the main real estate control policies affecting cement are still under overweight. Although interest rates have not been raised again after interest rate hikes in early July, the central bank has introduced new regulations to freeze funds by 900 billion yuan.
In addition, the major investment data for August showed that the accumulative growth rate of investment in real estate investment, railway investment, transportation (roads, waterways, etc.) was 25%, -11.5%, and 13.6%, a decrease of 0.4, 10, and 2.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. , showing that demand has been weak.
The real estate industry is also not optimistic. Following the first year-on-year decline in sales in August, China Vanke (000002), the leading domestic residential development company, experienced a year-on-year decline in sales.
There was also a year-on-year decline in sales, including Country Garden (02007: 2.630, +0.15, ↑6.05), China Shipping (03383), Poly Real Estate (600048:9.32, +0.11, ↑1.19), and Longhu (00960). Ten real estate developers. "Jinjiu" appeared to shrink in sales of several large-scale housing enterprises, which was the first time in 2009.
From the supply point of view, cement investment has shown signs of resurgence in the near term. In the medium term, future supply growth will continue into 2013, and even if all backward production capacity is considered to be eliminated, the capacity increase in 2011 and 2012 will exceed 100 million tons. Moreover, the northwest and north China regions, where supply was mainly concentrated before 2010, have aggravated the imbalance in supply and demand in the cement industry.
In June 2011, the total investment for the new cement projects was 18.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 54.7%, indicating that cement investment is still overheated. According to statistics of Industrial Securities, the number of cement production lines under construction after 2010 reached 323, with a total capacity of more than 400 million tons. Excluding the elimination of outdated production capacity, the net increase in cement capacity nationwide in 2011-2013 was 166 million tons, 163 million tons and 35 million tons.
Cement demand mainly comes from real estate investment, central key projects, and new rural construction. Among them, real estate accounts for about 1/3 of the total, central investment accounts for about 20%, and new rural construction accounts for 15-20%. Although the country has pushed 10 million sets of affordable housing construction, the growth in demand in the future is not optimistic due to the impact of real estate under control, high-speed rail and other central projects.
Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently show that investment in real estate development in the first half of the year increased by 32.9% year-on-year, but sales of commercial real estate grew by 12.9% year-on-year. If real estate transactions continue to be sluggish and the regulation and control efforts are still not relaxed, the subsequent development of real estate will gradually increase. Weakened demand for raw materials such as cement and steel may begin to weaken in the second half of the year.
Although the construction of affordable housing has accelerated and cement demand has increased, the country has not had the financial resources to maintain the construction of 10 million sets of affordable housing every year. What's more, the impact of the protection of housing on the increase in cement demand is not significant.
According to the estimate of 0.2 tons of cement consumption per square meter of urban residential buildings in China, the average amount of cement for each type of affordable housing is estimated to be around 10 tons. In 2011, the increase in demand for the construction of affordable housing was 100 million tons, equivalent to the total cement output in 2010. The 5.35% impact on the supply and demand of the cement industry is not very significant.
From the previous quarterly statistics, the cement production in the fourth quarter averaged over 27% of the whole year, which was the most demanding period in the year. From the previous quarterly statistics, the cement production in the fourth quarter averaged over 27% of the whole year, which was the most demanding period in the year. Under the influence of factors such as winter coal storage, the supply of cement will be limited by raw materials and energy in the fourth quarter, and the fourth quarter will be the peak season for cement consumption, which will lead to a partial supply shortage and cement prices.
As of September 26, Qinhuangdao Datong Youmian and Shanxi Youmian were 885 yuan / ton and 835 yuan / ton, respectively, compared with last week, the price is not large, the port inventory of 6,209,300 tons, down 9.26% from last week.
In addition, the prices of Northeast Heiji and Jilin provinces in advance of winter storage rose again before the winter storage, which was a year-on-year rise of nearly RMB 200/ton, which is already the highest price in Xinjiang except Xinjiang. According to Changjiang Securities, Harbin P. O42.5 scattered to reach 500 yuan / ton; Changchun to 485 yuan / ton. At present, the average price in the Northeast has been ranked first in the country. In the second half of the month, the northeastern region will enter the off-season demand. Therefore, the price of Hei Ji provinces should be the last increase in 2011. The last price increase is more conducive to the adjustment of prices into the winter storage period. Judging from the market performance in the northeastern region this year, the 2011 winter storage price may change dramatically in previous years.
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