Since last Tuesday’s slump in the US dollar, it has attracted further technical buying, pushing copper’s gains to hit US$3157.5, which is close to the previous high of US$3,175. However, due to the long Christmas and New Year holiday, trading is scarce and transactions are light and obvious. Although the open interest rate has continued to increase slightly, the price of copper fell back to around US$3,070, and oscillated between 2950 and 3070 under the influence of profit-taking. At present, the dominant price trend is still the trend of the US dollar and changes in inventory. COMEX's inventory has been continuously increased by 12,000 tons for seven trading days, but LME stocks still fell by 4,800 tons last week, inventory has been reduced to 50,250 tons, and the overall inventory level is low. On the foreign exchange front, although the recent US retail sales data is strong and crude oil prices continue to fall, this does not provide support for the US dollar. The euro continued to maintain its strong momentum, breaking the 1.36 integer mark and setting a new high during the year. The finance minister of the Netherlands said last week that the euro’s rise was within an acceptable range. The German economic minister is optimistic about Germany’s economy next year and also supports the euro. The trend of the US dollar is already very close to the 1995 low, because the U.S. government believes that the decline of the U.S. dollar in the short and medium term can improve the competitiveness of U.S. exports and contribute to the consolidation of the U.S. economy. The U.S. dollar exchange rate may continue to weaken, which to a certain extent With favorable support, copper rebounded before the holiday and maintained a long bullish trend, providing the basis for the post-LME market rally. Copper prices are expected to remain high with the support of the weaker US dollar. Shanghai stock market recently under the guidance of the lack of LME, a strong high jump, maintain a slight upward trend in the shock, after falling down and finishing horizontal shocks, March prices will continue to test the previous high of 28,900. The trend in the far month is obviously weaker, the trading volume is slightly enlarged, and the positions are reduced by far. The low Masukura is clear, and the buying is quite steady, which makes the short-term prices remain strong. It is expected that the price will still maintain the upward trend in the mid-term and combine with the external disk to brewing momentum that will hit a new high. In terms of spot, the supply of copper in the recent non-ferrous metal trading market in Shanghai is very small. Near the end of the year, imports are not available, stock supply is still tight, and there are few transactions. Some traders who have goods are deliberately selling goods, and spot copper prices are maintained at 30,000 yuan / ton above the high operation, a higher reach of 30,700 yuan / ton. Aluminium: After the price of aluminum rose sharply for three consecutive days, prices remained at a high level and the positions were increased or decreased. On the whole, the strong characteristics were obvious and remained stable. With the background of further accelerated aluminum exports before the end of the year, domestic aluminum spot prices have risen significantly, especially for some warehouse receipts transactions. The spot aluminum price is between 16350 and 16400 yuan/ton, and it is expected that there will still be sufficient strength to increase. The division expects that the open interest can be increased by more than 10,000 hands during the consolidation process, making the aluminum market's total open interest amount to close to 100,000 hands, so that the high momentum will be strong.
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