According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first half of this year, China’s exports to the United States increased by 5.4%, a decrease of 13.9 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, exports to the United States increased by 3.8% in June, and the growth rate dropped by 23.8 percentage points.
Against the background of China's foreign trade exports still maintaining steady growth this year, China's export growth to the United States has shown a significant slowdown. Experts believe that behind it is affected by the economic environment and the trade friction initiated by the United States affects market confidence.
"On the one hand, affected by the favorable environment of the world economy, China's exports to the US last year were restorative growth, and this year is normal growth. This year China's export growth rate to most countries is generally not as good as last year." Bai Ming, deputy director of the Market Research Institute, said.
Except for this factor, the industry consensus is that the trade friction initiated by the US is an important incentive for China's export growth to the US to slow down.
"China and the United States have had three rounds of consultations so far, but because the Trump administration has repeatedly tossed, abandoned the consensus, and torn the contract, resulting in unnecessary fluctuations in market sentiment, which interfered with market expectations." Institute of International Trade and Economics, China World Trade Organization Institute Chang Tu Xinquan said.
Li Yong, deputy director of the Expert Committee of the China International Trade Association, said that the US has arbitrarily provoked a trade war, which has damaged the confidence of US importers to some extent, disrupted the normal rhythm of Sino-US trade, and may further disrupt the global trade supply chain. .
Based on the recent fundamentals of the US economy, it should have strong domestic demand and expand imports, but it has shown the opposite trend in trade with China. This cannot but be said that the trade between the two countries has been disturbed by the recent situation, and it is feared that all parties concerned will be affected. damage.
Under the cloud of US trade protectionism, those US SME importers with limited funds are the first to bear the brunt, and will suffer from operational difficulties and even bankruptcies.
The United States has imposed joint opposition from companies and business associations. The US Chamber of Commerce recently released a report saying that the US government’s tariff on imported goods is actually taxing US consumers and businesses, allowing them to pay more for daily necessities and raw materials, which will hurt US companies and consumers and threaten the United States. The overall economic recovery.
Many US companies have made a clear statement, urging the US government not to implement a tariff-cutting policy that is damaging the economy because it is a tax on US consumers and will put jobs in the US, including manufacturing, at risk.
Trade friction not only affects both parties, but also undermines global supply chains and has a negative impact on global trade and the economy. The OECD predicts that if the United States takes the lead in raising tariffs and causes Other countries to counter, it will eventually lead to a 10% increase in global trade costs and a 6% reduction in global trade.
"More importantly, the escalation of trade frictions undermines the confidence of international cooperation and has multiple impacts on the economies of various countries, and the impact is difficult to estimate." Bai Ming said.
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