The trend of non-ferrous metals in 2015 will continue to differentiate

Center of gravity continues to move down

In 2014, the price of copper went out of the trend of large V, followed by oscillations.

The global macro is mixed. The Haitong ** annual report believes that the United States has ended its long-term recession and entered the period of development, and has become an important driving force for global economic growth. However, the European economy has experienced stagnation. In addition, the Chinese economy has entered a three-period superimposition period, and the overall structural change has taken place. This may bring downward pressure on copper prices.

In terms of smelting, the operating rate of copper smelting enterprises has increased this year compared with last year, but the downstream enterprises are underemployed. August copper smelting enterprises operating rate was 91.15%, an increase of 1.90%, an increase of 3.93%. August copper rod enterprises started at 73%, which was a decrease of 4.41% year-on-year and an increase of 1.84% month-on-month. In July, the operating rate of copper sheet and foil enterprises was 59.57%, a year-on-year decrease of 23.21% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.81%; September wire and cable enterprises operating rate was 80 %, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, a decrease of 2.11% compared with the previous period; in August, the operating rate of copper pipe enterprises was 76.06%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.40% and a decrease of 1.92% compared with the previous period. The operating rate of smelting enterprises is high, but the downstream demand is insufficient, resulting in copper supply greater than demand.

Regarding changes in the supply and demand side of copper, the Haitong ** annual report believes that on the supply side, the ** event in October last year gave upward momentum to copper prices and it is expected that this factor will continue to exist this year; on the other hand, due to the increase in smelting costs and copper The increase in mine production is expected to face downward pressure on copper prices this year.

The CITIC ** Annual Report believes that the 2015 copper concentrate supply will continue to be relatively loose, and it is a foregone conclusion. Under the background of slowing demand growth, the focus of copper prices will continue to move downwards, with the lowest point at 41,000 yuan/ton and LME copper at 5,800 dollars/ton.

The Haitong ** annual report predicts that copper prices will decline in the second half of 2015 as a whole, LME copper oscillates in the range of 6200-7200 U.S. dollars per ton, and Shanghai copper oscillates in the range of 41,000-51,000 yuan per ton.

aluminum

Will usher in spring

Since 2008, aluminum prices have been in a downward trend. In the harsh winter that lasted for several years, the supply and demand structure of the global primary aluminum market quietly changed. The Merdeka Annual Report believes that for the first time in 2014, global primary aluminum will have a supply gap, and 2015 will usher in the spring.

In the first quarter of last year, a strong excess of raw aluminum pressure suppressed LME aluminum prices to 1,700 US dollars / ton, the domestic market spot price of primary aluminum fell to 12,500 yuan / ton low. This forced Chinese smelters to cut output by 2 million tons, and Western aluminum producers have also cut production. The reduction in domestic production caused a significant reduction in excess pressure. In the second half of the year, LME aluminum rebounded by more than 20% from its low point as the US economic recovery momentum strengthened.

On the supply side, Meierya believes that the supply of bauxite is tight, but the problem is not prominent. “Because of restrictions on bauxite exports from Indonesia and the Ebola virus incident in Africa, the supply of bauxite and alumina to the world and China is slightly tight. Due to market speculation, raw materials such as bauxite and alumina in China are expected to increase in 2015. 5% to 10%."

According to the Merdeka Annual Report, for the Chinese market, from a dynamic perspective, even if the increase in alumina imports is not considered, the supply of bauxite is not expected to be too tight in early 2016. The reason is that China reserved nearly 30 million tons of bauxite in 2013, and in recent years, China's import demand for bauxite is on a scale of 35 to 40 million tons.

Therefore, even if there are Ebola virus incidents in Indonesia and Africa, China will still be able to easily obtain 35 million tons of bauxite from the international market in 2014, and Brazil, Malaysia, India and other places will have sufficient supplies of bauxite. The supply of raw materials in Russia will also increase. The Merrill ** annual report predicts that China will still import about 40 million tons of bauxite in 2015.

On the demand side, taking into account the impact of the deceleration in China's economic growth, the Meier Yabu ** annual report predicts that the global primary aluminum demand growth in 2015 will be 5.0%, which is lower than the growth rate in 2014. “As China undergoes reforms and economic restructuring, the real estate market is shrinking and the economic growth rate will slow. It is expected that the growth rate of China's primary aluminum demand will decline from 9% in 2014 to 7.7% in 2015. The demand for primary aluminum is expected to increase outside China. 2.8%."

According to the Merdeka Annual Report, there were clear signs of peaking in the real estate market in 2014. The decrease in sales area and price indicates that the property expansion cycle has ended in the past more than 10 years and it is expected that the growth rate of real estate investment will slow down to below 10% in 2015.

The simultaneous decline in housing prices and sales areas is a very clear signal. Data show that from January to October 2014, the sales area of ​​commercial housing fell by 8% year-on-year. According to the changes in the prices of housing sales in 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics in October, there are 69 cities that have fallen in price, and 1 city in which they have remained flat. The price index fell by 2.6% year-on-year, and the average house price decreased year-on-year.

The declining trend of real estate sales and real estate sales shows that the shrinking trend of real estate is beginning. This will lead to shrinking sales of commercial housing and new housing starts in 2015, and the growth of real estate investment will slow down to less than 10%.

The Melco ** annual report predicts that the Shanghai Aluminum main contract will run in the range of RMB 13,000-15,000/ton in 2015 with an average annual price of RMB 13,800/ton. In 2015, LME aluminum prices in March were mainly in the range of 1850-2350 USD/ton. The annual average price of LME3 aluminum is estimated at US$2,100/tonne.

lead

Or first suppress

At the beginning of 2014, due to the better-than-expected US employment data to stimulate the rise of the US dollar, Lunleader suffered a decline in the previous heights. As domestic economic growth in the first quarter has weakened and the first domestic corporate bond default has triggered the market's concerns that the slowdown in China's economic growth will affect the demand for mortals, Lunlead continues to fall, with the lowest price dropping to US$ 2013/ton. . At the beginning of April, the U.S. economic data remained strong, and domestic stable growth measures were gradually introduced. Lead continued to strengthen. In June, Lunleader's overall oscillation rallied due to strong US economic data and expectations for the continued expansion of the Chinese manufacturing sector. After entering July, Lunlead jumped and was hit by a maximum of 2,307 U.S. dollars per tonne, stimulated by domestic economic data.

In August, overall U.S. data was positive and the market’s expectation of continuous improvement in demand was strengthened. In July, China’s newly added ** fell to the lowest level in the past five years, and lead prices showed a pattern of wide oscillation. After entering September, Lun lead fell from a high position. On the one hand, the US dollar index has risen to suppress the price of lead. On the other hand, according to the data, the Chinese economy is declining. The domestic macroeconomic atmosphere is vacant and it is also not conducive to lead prices. From October to November, due to the market's concerns about the prospects for global economic growth, lead prices continued to fall and set a new low of US$1957.5/ton during the year on November 5. On November 22, the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut interest rates for more than two years and the lead price rose overnight. However, the rise in lead prices is a reflexive move, and the outlook price may fall again, and it is expected to continue its weak oscillation during the year.

On the supply side, the global lead ore production in 2014 was 5.56 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Due to the construction of new mines in 2015 and the expansion of existing mines, after deducting the loss of production caused by the decline in mining tastes, the Merrill ** annual report predicts that global lead concentrate production in 2015 will increase by 5.6% to 5.87 million tons. Due to the shutdown of the smelter, the output of refined lead is expected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year.

According to the GF Annual Report, there is a slight shortage of global lead supply in the past two to three years, mainly due to the relative scarcity of lead supply in the United States, while Europe is relatively stable and China is still in a surplus situation, but this year's surplus has narrowed. . The lack of supply of refined lead in the United States is due to the limited production of refined lead.

On the domestic front, refined lead output was more prominent last year. According to the data, the total domestic refined lead production in the first 11 months totaled 3.9034 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 6.7% year-on-year. This is mainly influenced by two factors. First, the domestic primary lead companies have been significantly affected by the tight supply of lead. As last year's precious metals prices continued to decline, the major benefits of lead mines have dropped significantly, seriously hurting the production and shipping willingness of lead mines. Second, last year, the domestic environmental protection policy was further tightened, which significantly inhibited the production of recycled lead and small and medium-sized mines. For 2015, the GF Annual Report believes that domestic refined lead output is likely to continue to show a slow contraction.

In terms of demand, the Merdeka Annual Report believes that although China's auto production will increase further in 2015, the expansion of mobile base stations will boost the demand for lead-acid batteries for backup power, but output of electric bicycles, which account for a larger percentage of lead-acid batteries, will increase. Slow down. Slow growth in Europe and the United States, and limited growth in consumption in India, Japan, and Southeast Asia. Therefore, the Merdeka Annual Report believes that the demand for lead in 2015 is expected to increase by 2.0% to 11.56 million tons.

The Melaka Annual Report predicts that the supply of lead will improve in 2015, but the demand is still difficult to achieve growth. The lead price range may move downwards, and the pattern of decline in lead prices will appear throughout the year. “The average lead price for LME in March is expected to be US$2,000/ton in 2015, which is lower than US$2125/ton in 2014.

CITIC ** Annual Report believes that lead prices in 2015 will continue to show weaker external strength. “In the context of cost support and limited internal and external supply, it is estimated that there will be strong bottom support for lead prices in and out of 2015 at RMB 12,500-13,000/t and 1,850-1900 USD/t respectively, and the space above it will mainly depend on consumer energy. Whether the situation is improving and whether the macroeconomic situation is stable. It is estimated that the 2015 Lun lead oscillation interval will be 1850-2500 USD/ton, and correspondingly, the Shanghai-lead fluctuation range will be 12500-15500 yuan/ton.”

Zinc

Continue to dominate the macroscopic side

Zinc price performance in 2014 was eye-catching. After the shift in the center of gravity at the end of 2013, the focus of zinc price oscillations continued to move upwards in 2014 and the bottom continued to rise. It rose strongly during June and July, and by the end of July, zinc and Shanghai zinc climbed to 2,416 US dollars respectively. Ton and 17455 yuan / ton high, hit a new high in the past three years, after the zinc price continued to run high, Lun zinc and Shanghai zinc in the 2166-2416 US dollars / ton, 15870-17455 yuan / ton in the higher range of finishing Forward. The CITIC ** annual report believes that the macro situation will continue to dominate the high price of zinc.

On the supply side, the CITIC ** annual report believes that the tight supply of long-term foreign zinc ore will not change. “Although the closure time of the Century Mine will be deferred from the middle of next year to the end of the third quarter, the certainty of the closure of the mine in the coming year is still large. In addition, other foreign mines will also be closed in the next year or two, so the future The prospect of tightening zinc supply abroad has not changed."

Regarding the domestic supply pattern of zinc ore, CITIC ** annual report believes that it is expected to continue the more relaxed trend. This is mainly because the zinc mines in the country have continued their high performance in previous years.

According to Antaike statistics, there are more than 50 lead-zinc mine projects newly built and expanded in China in recent years. The CITIC ** annual report estimates that these mines may increase their zinc concentrate production capacity by 1,222,000 tons in 2013-2017. Based on the peak period of the release of domestic zinc mines in the next two to three years, it is more likely that the domestic zinc ore supply will continue its loose pattern in 2015.

In terms of consumption, although the growth of the real estate industry has slowed down this year, the growth of galvanized consumption in other major consumer sectors such as infrastructure, automobiles, ships, and power grids has made up for the slowdown in the real estate industry. The performance of the die-casting zinc industry was poor this year due to the dull performance of the terminal industries such as bathroom, accessories, and toys and home appliances. In terms of zinc oxide, about 70% of zinc oxide is used in the real estate and automotive industries, and its overall performance this year is also more general.

As the performance of the domestic zinc terminal industry will continue to diverge in 2015, the CITIC ** annual report believes that domestic zinc consumption and regional consumption will continue to be different.

The CITIC ** annual report predicts that the zinc price performance in 2015 is expected to continue to outperform other base metals and continue its high level of operation, and may break the high point of 2014 and record new heights. It is estimated that the Lun-Zinc operating interval in 2015 is mainly at 2,150-2,600 U.S. dollars per ton. Correspondingly, the major fluctuation range of Shanghai-Zinc is between 15500 and 19,000 yuan per ton.

nickel

Relatively optimistic

Nickel prices experienced a roller coaster market in 2014. Affected by the Indonesian government's nickel export ban, nickel prices rose sharply from March to May, and nickel prices continued to rise in the second quarter. However, after further interpretation of the Indonesian policy, nickel prices began to slowly return, falling back to the point of rise.

In terms of supply, the world's nickel reserves are mainly distributed in Australia, Russia, Cuba, Canada, Brazil, New Caledonia, South Africa, Indonesia and China, accounting for approximately 90.6% of the world's total nickel reserves. During the 3rd year of 2009, the average annual growth rate of nickel mine production in the world reached 17.6%. In 2013 Indonesia accounted for 39% of the world's nickel ore, and the Philippines accounted for 27.7%. The two regions accounted for 66.7% of the world's nickel production.

The Melaka Annual Report predicts that the current supply shortage of nickel ore in 2014 will reach 120,000 tons of metal. “In 2015, some new projects may reach new supply, and the shortage will shrink to 95,000 tons. This is the biggest reason for the current rise in nickel mines, and it will continue until the first half of 2015.”

In the domestic market, Antaike statistics show that the main producing areas of nickel pig iron enterprises are mainly located in Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Fujian, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning, and the output accounts for 76%-78% of the country's total output. The basic production areas this year and last year The same period is not big. The output of the main producing areas decreased by 6.4% from the previous month, and the reduction in production in the Shandong area decreased by 18% from the previous period. Support for new projects such as production, production in Guangdong quarter increased by 14.8% quarter-on-quarter; Fujian area due to maintenance and new equipment and other factors, high nickel ferromanganese production decreased significantly, but the increase in the contribution of low nickel ferronickel metal volume is more obvious. According to the Mayer-Year Report, China's primary nickel production in 2015 decreased by 10.3% year-on-year to 610,000 tons.

On the demand side, as China's nickel is mainly concentrated in the consumption of the stainless steel industry, China's 2014 stainless steel production accounted for about 53% of the world's total. Due to demand and cheap nickel-iron materials, output has been growing at a double-digit rate.

According to data released recently by the Stainless Steel Branch of the China Special Steel Enterprises Association, the output of crude stainless steel in the first three quarters was 6.0221 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.44%; the apparent consumption of stainless steel was 11.7881 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.71%. According to the calculation of stainless steel output of 21.5 million tons in 2014, the consumption of primary nickel in stainless steel was 750,000 tons, an increase of 5% year-on-year.

In addition, the consumption of nickel in the battery and alloy fields has also increased significantly. It is expected that the nickel consumption in China will reach 900,000 tons in 2014, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. Melia ** believes that China's nickel consumption in 2015 will increase by 5.56% year-on-year to 950,000 tons.

The Melaka Annual Report predicts that the nickel price in 2015 will be relatively optimistic. In 2015, the average nickel price of LME will be US$19,000/ton.