Abstract Sales fell 34% two years ago, and DeBeers, the world's largest diamond producer, had hoped to reverse the decline in the US market, and now it seems likely to be disappointed. The interest rate hike not only suppressed the demand for gold coins, but even the diamond industry has been in trouble this year. The United States is the largest in the world...
Sales fell 34% two years ago, and De Beers, the world's largest diamond producer, had hoped to reverse the decline in the US market, and now it seems likely to be disappointed. The interest rate hike not only suppressed the demand for gold coins, but even the diamond industry has been in trouble this year. As the world's largest market, the United States has driven a large amount of diamond consumption in the past few years. But now, the changes in American people's consumption habits have affected the entire diamond industry. Tiffany failed?
The United States is the most important market for the diamond industry, and demand from this market accounts for more than half of the global demand for jewellery. And in the past six years, with the improvement of the US job market, wage growth and strong stock markets have promoted diamond consumption, which has become a highlight of the diamond industry. But this year, the performance of the US market began to weaken.
Jewelry giant Signet data showed that sales in the first quarter fell by 12%. The figure of another famous jeweler, Tiffany, was also disappointing, with sales in the US market falling by 3% in the first quarter.
Tiffany's sales were a mess, completely lower than expected. The US region is Tiffany's main treasury, and Tiffany's sales in the United States account for nearly half of Tiffany's revenue. However, the US market has failed, and Tiffany's overall performance is very worrying.
Tiffany’s weak performance is not a temporary one. Tiffany's operating income for the fiscal year 2015 reached $4.1 billion, down 3% year-on-year. Although it was only a slight drop, it was the first negative growth of the company in the past eight years.
Consulting firm Bain & Co estimates that there was almost no profit margin in the entire cutting and polishing industry in 2015, while the gross margin in 2013 was around 4%. On the one hand, the price of diamonds is falling, but the relative price of rough diamonds remains firm, which affects the profit of the cutting and polishing industry.
The two major sources of financing for the diamond industry, Standard Chartered Bank and Antwerp Diamond Bank, are gradually withdrawing from the industry. The financing level of the entire diamond industry has dropped from the previous level of 16 billion US dollars to 13 billion US dollars. The bubble of massive financing over the past few years is slowly receding.
Yang Delong, executive general manager of Qianhai Open Source Fund Management Co., Ltd., said in an interview with Beijing Business Daily: "The Fed’s monetary cycle has tightened, which is obviously a negative for the precious metals market. Under this situation, the performance of safe-haven assets will be significantly lower than that of risky assets. ."
Affected by the UK's decision to "Brexit", some financial institutions in Europe have reduced financing for diamond-related companies. As a diamond distribution center in Antwerp, Belgium, the capital turnover of grinding manufacturers tends to deteriorate. According to Sanshan, a Japanese jewelry manufacturer, "the aim is to ensure that the sales of working capital is becoming more and more prominent."
Diamonds are supplied to the grinding mills by miners such as the largest producers De Beers and Alrosa. Grinded diamonds flow into the hands of traders around the world. Some voices said that due to the deterioration of the market environment, the attitude of mining miners who have always adopted a bullish strategy is also more flexible than before. Dutch financial giant ABN Amro said that "even if production is reduced, but inventory has not decreased, the market is still weak."
"Trump Bull Market"
A giant like Tiffany may only wait patiently for the next golden age. Gold and diamonds became “difficult brothers and brothersâ€, and the sales of US gold coins in the first half of the year were very weak.
Data show that the US Mint's US Eagle Gold Coin sales fell to 192,500 ounces in the first half of this year, the worst performance since 2007. The US Eagle silver coin sales in the first half of this year was only 12.2 million ounces, the worst level since 2008.
Terry Hanlon, chairman of Dillon Gage Metals, said: "Investors in the US seem to be more interested in stocks. The stock market seems to have been rising in the first half of this year. The whole news is positive for the stock market, so the funds for entering the gold and silver coins are relatively small. ."
In the first half of the year, US stocks were eye-catching. The three major stock indexes have repeatedly rebounded to high levels, of which the S&P 500 index has risen 8.24%.
Chris Verrone, director of technical analysts at Strategas Research Partners, said last week: "The speeches of leaders continue to reflect an environment of higher interest rates and higher risk appetite, such as banking, financial assets, transportation, The continued upswing of corporate stocks in the machinery and residential construction sectors has shown a positive side. On the contrary, the situation of many bond agents continues to deteriorate."
"Based on the embarrassment of US President Trump's tax cuts, deregulation and strengthening of infrastructure such as infrastructure, US stocks have been gratifying since November last year and have been called Trump bull market by many market participants. But for now, many The promotion of the policy is not satisfactory." Yang Delong further explained.
Judging from some recent economic data, most of the economic data support the US economy is still in a relatively strong recovery process. From now on, Trump's economic stimulus will boost US corporate profits in the future, and the economic fundamentals are expected to be good. Support for the US stock market, while the US stock market's rising price also benefited from the return of overseas capital.
Stephen Simonis, chief currency adviser of foreign exchange investment company FXDD, said that due to the US political system, the Trump administration's tax reform plan and other economic stimulus plans are likely to be postponed, and there may be variables.
At the same time, after the global financial crisis in 2008, the overall bull market of US stocks has been going on for nearly nine years, and concerns about the possible overvaluation of US stocks are continuing to heat up.
Consumption habits have changed since 2017, the “negative correlation†between gold and US stocks has become stronger and stronger than the previous two years. Market risk appetite is high, the Dow Jones index hit a 21,000 mark recently, and the Nasdaq hit a record high. Gold diamonds were “discarded†when investors poured funds into the US stock market.
In addition to market risk appetite, consumer spending habits have also quietly changed. Tiffany is best known for bringing high-margin diamond products to the company. At the end of the 19th century, the company changed from a silversmith to a "king of diamonds" in the United States through six-prong setting techniques. Then, the company succeeded in selling in the 1940s as a selling point and has dominated the market for half a century.
According to the RapNet Diamond Index, the price of different grades of diamonds fell by 1.7%-14.6% from the same period last year. Consumers now prefer the relatively cheaper items, which affects the type and quantity of diamonds that jewelers need.
In other words, in addition to the local economic downturn and the budget of Americans to reduce the amount of gift advances, diamond brand owners are more worried that the original main customers, those who buy wedding rings are becoming less, people become unloving. married. Randy Olson, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Pennsylvania, found in 2015 that the US marriage rate has steadily declined since the 1980s, and the downward trend has not eased.
But there is no taboo in business. In 2015, Tiffany finally got the idea of ​​same-sex marriage, launched a group of same-sex wedding rings, or too small. After two years, it seems that there is no big wind.
The seriousness of the previous generation for engagement, marriage, and wedding commemoration gradually disappeared in this generation. Fewer and fewer people will go to the store to spend and replace the diamond ring on important anniversary days.
The international price of diamonds as jewelry has fallen to its lowest point in five years. The profitability of jewelry stores and diamond processing companies has deteriorated.
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