Abstract At present, the growth rate of demand in the photovoltaic industry is synchronized with the growth rate of demand for recovery in the crisis. The consumable products in the field of crystalline silicon chips also have the attributes of "MSG" - various consumable products in the production cost of silicon wafers...
At present, the growth rate of demand in the photovoltaic industry is synchronized with the growth rate of demand for recovery in the crisis. Consumable products in the field of crystalline silicon wafers also have the attribute of "MSG" - all consumable products are less than 5% in the cost of wafer production. The cost from high to low is cutting steel wire, tough material silicon carbide, cutting liquid. In the context of the industry recovery, the fundamentals of listed companies in the field of polysilicon chip consumables should be optimistic, but also carefully check out various consumables and enterprises. Demand growth is mixed.
For wafer cutting, multi-line cutting technology is widely used in the world. The principle is to mix the cutting liquid with the cutting material, spray it on the very fine cutting wire, and cut the steel wire at high speed to achieve the cutting effect. Take away the heat and fine powder generated during the cutting process. At present, among the listed companies, Stellar Technology, Xindaxin Materials and Aoke Co., Ltd. are regarded as representative enterprises for cutting steel wire, cutting materials and cutting fluid respectively.
There is also a cutting method for diamond cutting wire cutting, but because the product diameter is 250 microns, more than twice the cutting wire, the polysilicon loss is large, and it will leave a line mark on the surface of the crystal silicon wafer, resulting in low conversion efficiency of the crystalline silicon cell. It can only be used in the field of roughing of silicon ingots and does not meet the requirements for wafer cutting.
The silicon ingot cutting can use the diamond cutting line, but it does not affect the requirements of the cutting steel wire and the cutting liquid. Only the cutting material silicon carbide is replaced with the electroplated diamond on the cutting steel wire, and the cutting liquid is still required to cut and take away the powder.
The biggest impact on the demand for cuttings is the consumption behavior of manufacturers. The large crystalline silicon cell manufacturers surveyed all reported the recycling of cutting waste. It is understood that it mainly recycles and reuses the cutting material in the waste liquid, but has little interest in the recovery of the cutting fluid. For the recycling of cutting materials, some small factories even recycle more than 20 times, and their demand growth is nonlinearly related to the growth of crystalline silicon cells. Moreover, the technical barriers of silicon carbide are relatively low, and the new and new materials themselves are entangled in the division of intellectual property protection.
In the multi-wire cutting process of silicon wafer, the cutting liquid mainly functions to disperse, suspend, lubricate, cool, improve cutting efficiency, and reduce cutting consumption. Good dispersibility, which can make silicon carbide distribute more evenly when the cutting liquid is mixed; excellent silicon carbide suspension capacity can effectively suspend and carry silicon carbide particles, improve cutting efficiency and reduce cutting consumption; excellent lubrication can be A protective film is formed on the surface of the silicon wafer to reduce the resistance during the cutting process and the surface defects of the silicon wafer; the outstanding cooling effect can be used in the market position.
For Stellar Technology and Oak's shares, from the comparison of technology maturity and market position: cutting steel wire has high technical barriers, and after one year of research and development, Stellar Technology has just entered the field. The research found that it has not yet been recognized by large crystalline silicon battery manufacturers, and even some manufacturers said they are not aware of the company's products.
At present, Bekaert of Belgium occupies the leading position of cutting steel wire, with a market share of more than 60%. The second-ranked Changzhou Fanden was founded by former Bekaert executives, and the technology is due to Bekaert. Xingda International and Stellar Technology have the same technical background of steel cords. They have developed their own cutting wire technology for two years, but have not received orders yet, showing the technical risks of investing in the industry.
The company has 20 years of research and development background of ethylene oxide derivatives. After two years, it has been the first to develop crystalline silicon cutting fluid, and it was first recognized by Wuxi Suntech. At present, the market share is about 70%, and large crystalline silicon battery manufacturers. It is familiar with its products.
The prospect of gross profit is very different and look at the gross profit. At present, Bekaert cutting steel wire is priced at 110,000 yuan / ton, the gross profit margin is as high as 50% or more, and there is a research report to set the prospect for stellar technology.
However, Stellar Technology itself has a more sober understanding. According to its November 11 announcement, the new sales revenue of “15,000 tons of cutting steel wire project after production is 1.03 billion yuanâ€, and its estimated product price is 68,000 yuan/ton. Even if the gross profit margin can be maintained at 50%, totaling 20,000 tons of capacity, the gross profit is only 680 million yuan, which is far from the price of 110,000 yuan.
In the field of steel cords, Stellar Technology is a technology follower of Bekaert and Xingda International. Once its products are in production, the industry price war will follow. 30% is the normal gross profit level after the cutting steel wire project is put into production. With the improvement of domestic technology maturity, the product cost base and gross profit margin are expected to continue to drop, and the gross profit per ton will further decline. Therefore, it is not appropriate to estimate the future of Stellar Technology at a static gross profit level.
In contrast, in order to maintain a 70% market share, Oak shares will initially monopolize the market in the explosive growth of the cutting fluid market at the expense of gross profit margin. According to the mid-year report, the cutting liquid gross profit rate is only 14.27%, and the space for decline is not large. According to the battery manufacturer, the cutting fluid of the Oakland headquarters of Liaoning has been transported to Jiangsu for thousands of kilometers, which is slightly lower than the price of small local factories in Jiangsu, showing its cost control capability.
Moreover, after the IPO of Oak shares, the funds raised in the country to distribute the production capacity of cutting fluid, where there is ethylene oxide production, it is set up near the factory, lock in the supply of raw materials, and shorten the transportation distance with the customers, showing the future gross profit margin There is room for improvement.
From a solid point of view, the growth of Aoke's cutting fluid has been locked, which will be consistent with the growth rate of crystalline silicon cells, and stellar technology can start to grab the market with leading companies in the mature technology. Effectively dissipates heat, thereby reducing cutting stress and preventing thickness deviation due to temperature changes; product batch requires stable quality and performance, easy to clean and recycle.
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