Recently, Shenzhen metal and plastics and upstream manufacturers of mold steel manufacturers have inquired about the International Mold and Hardware and Plastics Industry Suppliers Association, responding to the lack of orders after the Spring Festival, some orders have been canceled since April, the situation is not optimistic. Luo Baihui, secretary-general of the association, said that the country's macro policy is to stimulate domestic demand, and industrial transfer is also a gradual process. For the coastal areas, there is no hollowing out and de-manufacturing. The industry does not have to panic. Whether the enterprises move westward, move north or move abroad are not. As soon as you respond to the wind and follow the trend, you should rationally analyze the living environment. According to Luo Baihui's observation and analysis, the current situation of the lack of orders may be related to the turbulence in West Asia and North Africa and the "butterfly effect" brought about by the earthquake in Japan. The news from the Canton Fair and the mainland customs in Chengdu proves this. The turbulent influence of the situation in West Asia and North Africa Affected by the political turmoil in West Asia and North Africa, the number of buyers from the West Asia and North Africa in the 109th Canton Fair was significantly less, and Egypt even experienced negative growth. In the interview, the reporter found that large-scale enterprises with greater strength have greater influence on the market due to market diversification, risk concentration and leeway. For SMEs, especially those focusing on the Middle East or West Asia and North Africa, the impact is greater. However, most of the companies surveyed are optimistic about the market in the region, optimistic waiting for the recovery of the market. According to Luo Baihui, secretary general of the International Association of Mould & Hardware Plastics Industry Suppliers, from the current point of view, Zhejiang, a major province of hardware and plastics industry, has a greater impact, but it can be compensated by other markets. With the stability of the situation in West Asia and North Africa, China's hardware The export of plastics and other products to the West Asia and North Africa region will gradually recover. The Canton Fair has always been regarded as the "barometer" and "wind vane" of China's foreign trade. Before the meeting, Liu Jianjun, the spokesperson of the conference and deputy director of the China Foreign Trade Center, said that according to the analysis of overseas institutions, hotel reservation rates and air ticket bookings, the EU The situation in the United States will not change. Russia, India and Brazil are relatively stable. The number of buyers from Japan, North Africa and the Middle East will be affected. Overseas buyers are expected to decrease by 3-5% compared with previous years. Judging from the statistics of the two days before the Canton Fair, the number of purchasers exceeded 70,000 and the new record was created again. Compared with the same period of the 108th year, it increased by 14.29%, which was 5.54% higher than that of the 107th session. From the perspective of regional structure, the traditional market buyers have recovered significantly. Since the opening of the Canton Fair, the number of purchasers in Europe and the United States has increased significantly. The number of European buyers reached 10,614, an increase of 2.10% over the previous year. The number of American buyers increased by 24.90% to 11,493, compared with the previous year. The number of American buyers reached 2,566. In the same period, it increased by 3.89%. The number of Japanese buyers who have received much attention has increased significantly. The number of Japanese buyers reached 1,239 in the first two days, an increase of 16.89% over the same period of the previous year. Africa, where North Africa is located, maintained the basic stability of the number of buyers. In the first two days, it reached 6,184 people, an increase of 3.83% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, Egypt had 1,082 people, a decrease of 62 from the same period last year. Statistics are also confirmed by exhibitors. Gao Jianming, manager of sales department of Shandong Hongfa Branch Industry and Trade Co., Ltd. told reporters that several Middle Eastern customers who had previously made an appointment did not come. However, South America and Brazil have come to many new customer consulting products. Although the overall number of people in the African region has kept increasing slightly, the decline in the number of people from Egypt can be seen in the decline in the number of merchants in the turbulent regions, and the growth in the overall region of Africa may come from other slightly stable countries. Exhibitors in the hardware and chemical industry zone told reporters that the main affected areas are Libya, Egypt and other countries with more turmoil. Many neighboring countries like Israel, Jordan and other political parties have come to many merchants. Japan shocks IT consumer electronics downturn From Chengdu Customs news, in the first quarter of 2011, Sichuan exported 17,000 LCD TVs, a significant 81% reduction from 2010 (the same below). Luo Baihui believes that this situation may be related to the earthquake in Japan last month, because the Japanese dominant local industries such as semiconductor chips and liquid crystal panels were seriously damaged by the earthquake. Since the beginning of 2011, the export volume of LCD TVs in Sichuan has shrunk sharply. In March, only 356 units were exported, a sharp drop of 93.3% from the previous month. At the same time, the average export price rose steadily. The average price in March was US$243.9 per unit. The chain rose by 14.8%. In the first quarter of 2011, Sichuan LCD TVs exported 8600 units to the EU, a significant reduction of 83.6%; exports to Australia 4,005 units, a significant reduction of 81.4%; exports to ASEAN 3,474 units, a decrease of 29.6%, exports to the above three major markets accounted for the total exports in the same period 95.2%. Affected by the slow global economic recovery, LCD TV consumption continues to be sluggish. Currently, LCD TV sales in North America continue to grow negatively, and European market growth has also dropped to 5%. The Japanese market will also increase its 2011 growth rate after the old-for-new policy is withdrawn. decline. The downturn in the major consumer markets has led to continued shrinking demand for LCD TVs in the global market. At the same time, there was an industry inventory crisis in the first half of 2010, and major LCD TV manufacturers have chosen to limit production to cope with possible sales cycle adjustments. Japan's mold manufacturing technology is in the world's leading position. There are about 10,000 mold production plants in Japan, of which more than 20% account for more than 91%. The Japanese mold industry is mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, mainly relying on specialized division of labor to complete high-quality mold design and processing. In terms of processing, a large number of unattended processing units are used, or online control is performed by a computer. In the design and manufacturing department, almost all CAD/CAE/CAM technologies are used for motion simulation analysis and DNC (direct digital control) processing. The development of mold technology is mainly to the development of high precision, high speed, long life, complexity, large scale, integration and high performance. Due to the good division of labor in Japan, the overall manufacturing level of small and medium-sized mold enterprises is high, making the “Made in Japan†mold a symbol of brand and quality. Luo Baihui explained that in the global IT industry, Japan has long established a "geese-shaped model." Japanese local companies, as Yantou, hold upstream products and technologies; while South Korea, Taiwan and other developed regions mainly support Japanese technology; domestic plays the role of “Yanwei†and assembles for “Made in Japanâ€. , in the most downstream of the industrial chain. From this perspective, Japan's dominant local industries such as Japanese semiconductor chips and liquid crystal panels damaged by the earthquake will inevitably affect the downstream mold and hardware and plastic products industries. According to Luo Baihui's analysis, the earthquake directly caused a direct loss to the production of Japanese silicon materials, liquid crystal materials, and some semiconductors and electronic components. Due to the lack of power and poor logistics, the overall start-up situation of various industries is difficult to determine. Affected by this, there will be a shortage of supply in the global electronic materials and components market for some time. Chinese electronics companies that rely on Japanese raw material supply in the domestic LCD panel and electronic component manufacturing industry, as well as Chinese electronics companies that rely on Japanese core components for assembly, will face short-term negative impacts. The shortage of raw materials will directly lead to a decline in the output of related companies. In addition, at the beginning of 2010, the prices of silicon materials and liquid crystal materials generally showed a downward trend. However, the Japanese earthquake caused Japanese manufacturers to cut production, and the negative expectations caused by the global silicon materials and liquid crystal materials prices will stop falling. In the end of March this year, the display panel price, 18.5 å‹ each piece of 55 US dollars, rose 1 US dollar, or 2%; 20 å‹ quoted 62 US dollars, rose 1 US dollar, or 2%. This price increase trend is expected to be rapidly transmitted downstream along the industrial chain, and lead to the rising cost of procurement of semiconductor, electronic components, LCD, LED, photovoltaic and other component companies, as well as downstream electronic whole machine enterprises. Greatly affected. Affected by the direct and indirect effects of the earthquake, a large number of Japanese companies located in local factories have reduced production to varying degrees. Since Japanese-made LCD panels occupy a large share of the world and master the core technologies, domestic companies using Nissan panels will be greatly affected. Luo Baihui, executive secretary of the International Association of Mould & Hardware Plastics Industry Suppliers, said that at present, the automobile and IT electronics industry suffered the most serious losses. Due to the hindrance of parts supply, Hino, Mitsubishi, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Daihatsu, etc. Japanese automakers closed the factory in Japan. Among them, a total of 22 factories in Toyota, Honda and Nissan, the three major Japanese automakers, have closed. Three Japanese car companies that have been discontinued include Lexus, Infiniti and Acura. Among them, Toyota imports ranked third, second only to Mercedes-Benz and BMW. In the IT electronics industry, Sony shut down six factories; Panasonic chose to temporarily suspend production; Toshiba also closed the microcontroller factory in Iwate. The earthquake did not cause much damage to the factory or production equipment of these electronic chip factories, but equipment maintenance, power supply shortage and traffic damage will affect the chip supply. According to incomplete statistics, the main situation of Japan's exports to China is: (1) machinery more than 20-30 billion US dollars / month; (2) chemical industry 1.5 billion US dollars / month; (3) finished goods 15 More than -20 billion US dollars / month (700 million steel products, 300 million non-ferrous metals, 200 million metal molds and products, 60 million rubber molds and products, 200 million textile yarns and fabrics, more than 100 million non-metallic minerals, paper and (4 million paper products); (4) more than 3 billion US dollars in electronics and motors, including more than 1 billion semiconductor sub-projects, 780 million integrated circuits; (5) more than 600 million US dollars in transportation equipment: motor vehicles and About half of the auto parts and components; (6) “Other†projects worth $1.2 billion/month: of which, scientific optical instruments are $600 million per month. Luo Baihui believes that the earthquake will lead to upstream and downstream supply chain crisis in industries such as automobiles, IT electronics, and machinery molds. The molds of the traditional manufacturing industry include: automobile cover moulds, auto parts and electronic molds, home appliance moulds, consumer electronics moulds, mobile communication moulds, OA moulds, medical supplies moulds, instrumentation moulds, plastic daily necessities and toy moulds, Aerospace module molds, rail transit related products molds, various types of mechanical molding related product molds. On the basis of serving traditional manufacturing industries such as automobiles, machinery, electronics and home appliances, many new products will also serve strategic emerging industries such as new energy, medical equipment, aerospace, energy conservation and emission reduction. The mold manufacturing industry will support the development of emerging strategic industries, precision and ultra-precision molds with sensing functions for the next-generation IT information technology industry; precision ultra-precision molds for medical equipment serving the bio-industry; and services for the energy-saving and environmental protection industry. High-gloss non-marking and in-mold assembly decorative mold, laminating mold and rotating mold, multi-color multi-material injection mold, multi-layer co-extrusion compound mold, multi-functional composite high-efficiency mold, LED new light source supporting mold and high-efficiency energy-saving motor Mold; new blade mold and spindle mold and motor mold for megawatt wind turbines serving the new energy industry; plastic and light metal substitute steel molds for energy-saving automotive hybrid molds and automobiles for the new energy automobile industry Intelligent molds such as cover hot forming dies and multi-station automated stamping dies will all be affected. Although major Japanese manufacturers have not suffered catastrophic damage, the transportation of the earthquake has caused disruption, raw material supply has been affected, and finished products have not been shipped to airports or ports. As Japan's position in the global industrial chain is extremely important, the supply chain crisis will bring losses to Japanese manufacturers and even global manufacturers within a few months. In terms of the impact of mold companies in Shenzhen, Luo Baihui said that automotive and IT consumer electronics molds should be affected to a certain extent, but limited impact on companies such as Yihe and Changhong, which are mainly OA customers. It is understood that the top five customers of Yihe Company in 2009 are Konica Minolta, Fuji Xerox, Canon, Kyocera Mita and Toshiba, respectively, and their OA revenues accounted for 21.9%, 16.0%, 13.9%, 7.0%, respectively. 6.2%, the main production areas of the top four customers are not in the hardest hit areas, only Toshiba may be partially affected. This strong earthquake has had a serious impact on Japan's northern industries. The region is a major producer of semiconductors and electronic components in Japan. Specifically, many large semiconductor manufacturers in Meguro Prefecture and Miyagi Prefecture are manufacturing electronic components and electronic machinery. Base and Sendai City are mainly in the MEMS field of semiconductor-related industries. Fukushima Prefecture mainly produces monocrystalline silicon wafers and semiconductor devices. The most affected electronics manufacturers are Toshiba and Sony, and Panasonic, Sanyo and Sharp are also affected. Therefore, the direct impact of the earthquake on Yihe Company is extremely limited. In terms of raw material supply, the company has a small amount of steel and plastic pellets purchased in Japan. Since the relevant manufacturers are not in the strong earthquake area, there is no impact. In terms of product sales, almost all parts of the company are sold to Japanese customers in mainland China. The manufacturing base is purely domestic sales, so there is no direct impact. Only a small number of molds are sold to Japan, but the proportion is very small and can be neglected. Indirect effects still require time to observe. The parts of the products that the company sells to Japanese customers still need to assemble electronic components such as chips into finished products. The most affected by this strong earthquake is semiconductor products such as chips. Therefore, it is not excluded that there are a few printers in the future. The shortage of chips and other supplies can not complete the assembly, which will indirectly affect the company's sales, but this situation has not yet appeared. Luo Baihui believes that due to the huge destructive power of this earthquake, it is initially estimated that it is difficult to restore the production of the electronics industry within three months, so the indirect impact still needs time to observe. Due to the natural constraints of Japanese production conditions, in the long run, it is not excluded that Japanese customers will increase the speed of transferring production capacity to China, especially high-end production capacity, and the company will greatly benefit from the progress and extent of capacity transfer. Mold industry in the international environment There are about 7,000 mold companies in the United States, and more than 90% are small businesses with less than 50 people. Due to the high development of industrialization, the US mold industry has long been a mature high-tech industry and is in the forefront of the world. The US mold steel has achieved standardized production and supply. The CAD/CAE/CAM technology is widely used in mold design and manufacturing. The processing technology, inspection and testing are equipped with advanced equipment, and the development of large, complex, precise, long-life and high-performance molds has reached the leading level. However, since the 1990s, the US economy has faced major adjustments and major changes in the post-industrial era, as well as strong international competition – from cost pressures, time pressures, and competitive pressures. Germany has always been known for its exquisite processing skills and the production of precision machinery and tools. Its mold industry also fully reflects this feature. For the complex industrial field of mold, after years of practical exploration, German mold manufacturers have formed a consensus: the whole industry must be coordinated, work together, tap the development potential, jointly promote the spirit of innovation, common technological progress, learn from each other, play well The overall advantage can achieve the success of the industry. In addition, in order to meet the needs of the rapid development of new products today, not only large companies have established new development centers in Germany, but also many small and medium-sized enterprises have done so, actively doing research and development work for customers. Germany has always been very active in research and has become an important foundation for its unbeaten success in the international market. In the fierce competition, the German mold industry has maintained a strong position in the international market for many years, and the export rate has been stable at around 33%. According to the statistics of the German machinery and mold industry organization, the German Machinery Manufacturers Association (VDMA) Tool and Die Association, there are about 5,000 mold companies in Germany. In 2003, the value of German molds reached 4.8 billion euros. Among them, there are 90 (VDMA) member mold enterprises, and the output value of these 90 backbone mold enterprises accounts for 90% of the German mold production value. Australia has experienced rapid economic growth in recent years and will continue to grow in the coming years. However, as the basic industry of mold manufacturing, especially the manufacturing capacity of stamping dies can not keep up with the needs of economic development, it is urgent to import stamping die manufacturing technology and capabilities from abroad, and China's mold industry has a big advantage in this regard, the market Prospects are promising. The specific analysis is as follows: China's stamping die enterprises have higher technical equipment than Australia. At present, the four major automobile die-making enterprises in China have 56 CNC milling machines, including 35 large-scale machines and 5 high-speed milling machines (including spindle rotations of 20,000 rpm/two). It has 143 computer workstations, 200 sets of various software, and 8 sets of forming analysis software and reverse engineering software. 5 large-scale coordinate measuring machines, 30 sets of debugging presses (1600 tons, 1400 tons, 1300 tons, 800 tons, 600 tons), 16 presses and presses, and most of the cranes are 30 tons and 15 tons, which far exceeds Australia. Equipment level. China has complete die design and manufacturing technicians and programmers, skilled CNC machine operators, fitter assembly and mold commissioners. China's labor wages are lower than Australia's. At present, it has the ability to manufacture car stamping dies. The company's production capacity is more than 200 sets to 400 sets of large and medium-sized stamping dies in the year, and the enterprise equipment load is not high, and it is fully capable of manufacturing molds for Australia. The software used in the design and manufacture of automotive molds in Australia is mostly ug, pro-e, catia and euclid. It is basically the same as the software used by Chinese mold companies, and can be shared. The cae analysis software and the simulation molding analysis software have similarities. This provides good conditions for our cooperation in China and foreign countries. The Australian Mold Association, the Adelaide Model Office, and the Melbourne Mold Association all have great hopes for the Chinese mold market and manufacturing companies. This will create favorable conditions for China to export molds to Australia. Singapore is a small country with a population of only 3 million. In the 1980s and 1990s, the government attached importance to and supported the development of precision molds, and introduced many policies to promote the rapid growth of the mold industry and promote the rapid development of Singapore's economy. Singapore has more than 1,000 types of molds and precision processing related companies, with an annual output value of more than 4.5 billion yuan, which has a considerable influence and role in the Asian mold industry. There are more than 10 listed companies in the mold industry. More than 65% of the molds produced by Singapore are supplied for the electronics-related industry. The molds produced are not large, but they are all high-precision, high-level molds. Singapore mold companies are mainly concentrated in semiconductor frames / packaging molds, metal stamping molds, plastic molds, silicone rubber molds and other fields. In recent decades, Japanese companies have been expanding outward, setting their manufacturing bases overseas. Some people think that this is “hollowingâ€. Luo Baihui believes that Japan has always been "industry-based", and the industry has the following characteristics. First, core technology and profit are in your hands. Japanese companies are characterized by commercial networks. For example, several large auto companies have established joint ventures with China. The profits left to Chinese companies are only in the assembly process. Other profitable parts such as parts, engines and high-end internals Decoration, etc., firmly in the hands of Japanese companies. Japan has always been an "industry-based country." Many joint ventures seem to be production plants. In fact, they are sales networks in China, and they enter the Chinese market in this way. And the Chinese brand is also included in the Japanese economy community. For example, Changhong, Haier, etc., on the surface, are Chinese brands, but the core components such as monitors are all in Japan, leaving only a brand for China. These can be seen from Mr. Bai Yimin's book "Mitsui Empire in Action" and "Aiming at the Japanese Consortium". How much damage has the earthquake caused to Japan's related industries? Mr. Bai Yimin, who has studied the Japanese industrial economy, believes that it is necessary to analyze it from two aspects. On the one hand, in the past 30 years, Japan's industry has spread throughout the world, and GNP (Gross National Product) has maintained a growth rate of more than 10% per year. From the economic point of view, it has already created a new Japan overseas. Many of the GDP (GDP) it created was counted in other countries, including China, although it seems that economic growth is stagnant, but this is only the appearance. From this perspective, the local earthquake will not have a particularly large impact on the Japanese economy and important industries. On the other hand, the Japanese consortium has built a “geese formâ€, which is to use the local enterprises as the head of the wild head to master the most upstream products and technologies; the second is Korea and Taiwan, mainly for Japanese technology; the last is the mainland The role of "Yanwei" is assembled for "Made in Japan" and is at the bottom of the industrial chain. From this perspective, the Japanese domestic industry damaged by the earthquake will inevitably spread to the downstream, especially some factories in mainland China. Therefore, comprehensive judgment, the earthquake will not have a fundamental impact on its domestic economy, and it will recover faster. Japan is a major producer of electronic products, and the impact of the earthquake on the global electronics industry has already emerged. Toshiba's chip factory was shut down due to the earthquake. Unlike the CPU in the computer, Toshiba's chips are used in higher-end products such as mobile phones, flash memory, and automotive automatic control systems. If the agent company can't get the goods, it will definitely hoard the sale. The impact on the price depends on the damage degree and recovery progress of the factory. If the factory can resume operation quickly, the price will not rise greatly; if the factory is shut down for a period of time, then the global chip The price will definitely rise. Other industries, such as steel, will not have much impact on the global iron ore market, as Japan has now concentrated on producing high-grade steel (such as automotive sheet), while large quantities of crude steel are sourced from China. The earthquake may affect the export of high-end automobile sheets from Japan to China, and in the long run, Japan's earthquake reconstruction will increase imports of China's crude steel. In addition to controlling core technologies in many fields, Japan also holds the most lucrative links in the industrial chain, leaving only the joint ventures in most other global markets with profit from the assembly process. This economic model of “industry-based†is also A place worth learning by Chinese companies. What needs to be vigilant is that international hedge funds and capitalists will make a big impact on the development of the global economy by creating public opinion, exaggerating losses and taking the opportunity to withdraw funds. If Japanese capital is taken away, global industrial associations will be very large. The impact. According to Luo Baihui, the executive secretary of the International Association of Molds and Hardware and Plastics Industry Suppliers, Japanese molds will face five major issues – shortening delivery time, reducing manufacturing costs, improving mold quality and precision, insufficient labor, and meeting the challenges of the above mold countries. The earthquake has made this situation worse, and many mold makers in Japan have shifted their investment in foreign equipment to domestic post-disaster reconstruction. In the future, the growth of Japanese plastic molds, powder metallurgy molds and die-casting molds has uncertain factors, while the stamping and forging dies are relatively decreasing.
JINAN LODOR CNC EQUIPMENT CO.,LTD , https://www.zgfireplace.com