Ministry of Commerce: Exchange rate test for foreign trade appreciation of the renminbi and 60% of export enterprises

Recently, the RMB exchange rate has continued to appreciate, which has caused greater pressure on foreign trade enterprises to export. At the same time, exchange rate instability and fluctuation risks have also increased the troubles of business operations. According to calculations, as of October 22, the RMB has appreciated by 2.5% against the US dollar, which has further reduced the export profits of the original meager Chinese companies.

Canton Fair: the test under the impact of "exchange rate"
Recently, the 108th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) was grandly opened at the Pazhou Complex in Guangzhou. Although the current Canton Fair merchants are expected to be at the same level as the previous session, the current Canton Fair is not sunny, and many negative factors including the "exchange rate war" are casting a heavy shadow on the future trend of this conference and China's foreign trade. At the meeting, Chong Quan, deputy representative of the International Trade Negotiations of the Ministry of Commerce, listed at least five aspects of “difficulties”, including a slowdown in external demand growth, more intense competition in the international market, severe trade frictions, and increased business pressures. The structure of the task is very difficult and so on.

Xiao Youyuan, general manager of Gree Electric's overseas sales company, admits that the fluctuation of exchange rate will definitely affect the manufacturing industry, but the order situation this year is still very satisfactory. The export growth in January-October is over 80%. The relevant person in charge of the Chigo Group also agrees that this year's Chigo's export growth in January-August reached more than 50%.

According to relevant foreign exchange market experts, although the renminbi has appreciated significantly in recent times, the renminbi is still facing great appreciation pressure due to the undercurrent of the global “currency war”.

If the renminbi appreciates by 2%, over 60% of export enterprises will be affected.
A survey of 239 Chinese exporters showed that over 60% of exporters said that a 2% or more appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar would have a negative impact on its exports. [Extended reading: China's export enterprises bitterly fight the dollar, the RMB settlement scene is beginning]

According to the survey, 60% of the export companies surveyed said that the exchange rate changes will lead to a decline in export orders, and 8% of the respondents even said that the appreciation of the renminbi will seriously affect their business. However, 22% of export companies believe that they will not export. Negative effects.

The survey also showed that more than one-third of the companies surveyed said that if the renminbi appreciates by 2% or more, the export volume will start to decrease, and 32% of the respondents pointed out that a 3% appreciation will cause the export to fall, but most Export companies do not believe that the yuan will appreciate more than 3% during the year.

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