At the same time, Ren Haoning, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting, also predicted that the GDP growth rate in the first half of the year will remain at 7.4% in an interview with Securities Daily. He believes that in the first half of the year, the national level deliberately reduced the intensity of large-scale investment to stimulate economic growth. The overall economic stimulus plan was not introduced, and the consumption and export situation benefited greatly from adjustment. Trade mode, trade quota, trade The region is more rationalized, and the improvement of residents' consumption power has also improved the economic quality to a certain extent, which has also promoted the continuous adjustment of the national industrial policy.
From the first quarter economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's economic growth rate has declined to a certain extent. In this process, the downward pressure on the economy has also brought great test to China's overall economic performance. . However, under this circumstance, China's economic development remains within a reasonable range, and new progress has been made in economic restructuring and industrial transformation and upgrading.
Wang Jun said that from the economic data of the first quarter, the industrial structure and consumption structure have undergone positive changes, but this result is a passive change, because investment and the secondary industry’s performance is relatively poor, making investment and The structure of consumption and the structure of the third and fourth industries have undergone reasonable changes. This is only the result of economic performance. For the transformation of the economic structure, we all have certain urgency, but the structural adjustment is not a fast-paced process, so the large-scale stimulus plan is not suitable for the current economic development of China, "micro-stimulus" The role has been reflected in all aspects of the second quarter, and will continue to play its unique role in the next six months or even further.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Wang Jun said that China's current economic operation is already in a stable development process, but the downward pressure on the economy cannot be ignored. Then China needs to gradually accelerate the economy through the policies of “micro-stimulus†and “stable growthâ€. Structural adjustment, combined with steady growth, combined with the implementation of reform programs to promote structural adjustment, the government through the role of "four or two to play a role" to guide social funds to invest relatively weak and need to improve, and then to achieve structural optimization and adjustment.
Ren Haoning said that at this stage, the national level has paid less attention to the growth rate of GDP, but it has paid special attention to the quality of national economic growth, and achieved good results in the first half of the year in terms of industrial restructuring and capacity optimization. The momentum of the national economy to stabilize and recover has also emerged. Investment in the infrastructure sector in the second half of the year will be expected to boost GDP growth.
When talking about how to promote further upgrading of quality and efficiency, Wang Jun believes that, first of all, innovation drivers are needed to change long-term investment-driven and external demand-driven, and to enhance quality and efficiency by encouraging independent innovation and technological advancement. Secondly, optimizing the structure itself is also a way to improve efficiency, because it includes the industrial structure, investment and consumption structure, regional structure, etc., through the adjustment of the structure can play a role in improving quality and efficiency. Once again, it is possible to increase the productivity of all factors, the input of human capital, and the efficiency of use.
Ren Haoning also said that at present, after the traditional industry has been severely hit, the transformation and upgrading faces many difficulties, and the emerging industries have not yet reached the point where they can bear the core of the economy. In the next economic development process, the national targeted RRR cut policy needs to be further improved. At the same time, many core tasks such as state-owned enterprise reform, taxation system reform, government function adjustment, and mixed ownership reform need to be strongly promoted, and the macro-control capability at the national level will play an important role.
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