The overall pattern of the domestic steel market in 2011 has basically surfaced. From January to August, under the expected demand for 10 million units of affordable housing, the price of steel, led by construction steel, oscillated upwards. In mid-August, steel prices rose to The high point of the year followed by the traditional “golden nine silver tenâ€, but under the background of the end of the protection housing construction, the steel price once again out of a wave of straight plummeting prices; then in the action of steel mills forced to cut production in order to be phased stable.
In the last month of 2011, the domestic steel market will no longer have a big market at all. As for the long-awaited steel winter stock market, industry insiders pointed out that the low demand period after the Spring Festival will be longer than in previous years, making the steel market have no courage to pick up goods.
After entering December, the demand for domestic steel companies has significantly weakened. Terminal demand for steel procurement at the end of the year is basically in accordance with the “demand-to-buy†model, and the willingness of inventory is not strong. This can be a sporadic transaction volume from the current mainstream market. Found some clues; but fortunately, due to the fact that steel mills have reduced production in the past two months, the domestic crude steel production has been repeatedly low for two consecutive months, so that the entire steel industry supply and demand in the off-season end of the year reached a subtle balance The phenomenon of low stocks or even zero stocks is common in the market. Less pressure also weakens price competition and avoids price wars.
However, it is worth noting that with the recent national cooling of the weather, especially the demand in the north has dropped to a low point, the spot steel price has dropped by a large margin and is widening the gap with the steel prices in the southern market. The direct result will lead to short-term steel production in the North. It is time to increase the intensity of shipments to the southern markets, and the low price of resources in the north will be a pressure on the market. As a result, the pressure on the southern market, which still has some terminal needs, will inevitably increase. At the same time, the new steel products that steelmakers used for low raw material costs in the first two months also started to arrive in the market in December. Relatively speaking, the current arrival price of resources will be far lower than the market price; the competition between new and old resources is also inevitable. Pulling down overall steel prices is at least a result of nowhere.
Insiders pointed out that this year has already passed the beginning of steel winter storage, but the stock market of winter storage has not yet opened. There are two main reasons:
On the one hand, the current funding side is still tight. Although the liquidity of the market funds has been strengthened after the introduction of fine-tuning domestic macroeconomic policies after November, it has become more common for the steel industry that was originally regulated. No new green was blown in the steel market; the first implementation of the central bank's RRR cut policy was implemented three years later on December 5, but this good news was basically consumed in the first few days, with steel prices rising by RMB 100/ The reality of about one tonne reflects an adjustment. For the current steel market, the liquidity of funds affecting the steel market is generally tight, and traders are facing a heavier back payment and payment pressure at the end of the year. The small and medium-sized traders that dominate the market do not have much money to prepare for the winter storage.
On the other hand, it is the demand for post-holiday. It is well known that the Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon has been nearly a month earlier than in previous years; that is to say, after the Spring Festival, the domestic steel market will not be able to usher in better downstream demand as in previous years; Longer periods of demand need to be digested. As a result, the significance of pre-holiday dumping does not seem to be large. No matter whether it is a middle steel trader or a downstream steel company, they have chosen to wait and see. On the one hand, waiting for the further decline in steel prices, to the bottom of the bargain-hunting; the other hand, the market is half-lived for so long, see the situation is unlikely to be a big change, since no money, why pay for the steel mills.
The steel market at the end of the year is not destined to be too calm, but this year's lack of calm is not reflected in the market's firestorm, but the market is too deserted. Near the end of the year, the Dongcun has not moved, and the manufacturers’ production cuts continue. Due to the unsatisfactory market transactions, the social inventory is still increasing in disguise. The willingness of merchants and middlemen to purchase is not strong. The market seems to be waiting for something. Currently, many factors are overshadowed. Affected by the resonance, the market is still weak.
From the perspective of market supply and demand, the impact of rain and snow not only affects transportation, but also has a great influence on the delivery of steel products and construction. Restricted transportation, shortage of goods in some parts of the south, but only part of the specifications, the overall resources are gradually weakening, the main wait-and-see operators, low-cost shipments are not active, and the purchase of steel mills are still on-demand purchases. Before the market transaction showed significant improvement, traders waited and watched with strong sentiment and were more cautious.
In summary, under a wide range of biased negative factors, the business is not optimistic about the market outlook, but the current facts do imply that the steel market is unlikely to improve before the end of the year, according to the current situation, the prospects of the steel market bleak.
In the last month of 2011, the domestic steel market will no longer have a big market at all. As for the long-awaited steel winter stock market, industry insiders pointed out that the low demand period after the Spring Festival will be longer than in previous years, making the steel market have no courage to pick up goods.
After entering December, the demand for domestic steel companies has significantly weakened. Terminal demand for steel procurement at the end of the year is basically in accordance with the “demand-to-buy†model, and the willingness of inventory is not strong. This can be a sporadic transaction volume from the current mainstream market. Found some clues; but fortunately, due to the fact that steel mills have reduced production in the past two months, the domestic crude steel production has been repeatedly low for two consecutive months, so that the entire steel industry supply and demand in the off-season end of the year reached a subtle balance The phenomenon of low stocks or even zero stocks is common in the market. Less pressure also weakens price competition and avoids price wars.
However, it is worth noting that with the recent national cooling of the weather, especially the demand in the north has dropped to a low point, the spot steel price has dropped by a large margin and is widening the gap with the steel prices in the southern market. The direct result will lead to short-term steel production in the North. It is time to increase the intensity of shipments to the southern markets, and the low price of resources in the north will be a pressure on the market. As a result, the pressure on the southern market, which still has some terminal needs, will inevitably increase. At the same time, the new steel products that steelmakers used for low raw material costs in the first two months also started to arrive in the market in December. Relatively speaking, the current arrival price of resources will be far lower than the market price; the competition between new and old resources is also inevitable. Pulling down overall steel prices is at least a result of nowhere.
Insiders pointed out that this year has already passed the beginning of steel winter storage, but the stock market of winter storage has not yet opened. There are two main reasons:
On the one hand, the current funding side is still tight. Although the liquidity of the market funds has been strengthened after the introduction of fine-tuning domestic macroeconomic policies after November, it has become more common for the steel industry that was originally regulated. No new green was blown in the steel market; the first implementation of the central bank's RRR cut policy was implemented three years later on December 5, but this good news was basically consumed in the first few days, with steel prices rising by RMB 100/ The reality of about one tonne reflects an adjustment. For the current steel market, the liquidity of funds affecting the steel market is generally tight, and traders are facing a heavier back payment and payment pressure at the end of the year. The small and medium-sized traders that dominate the market do not have much money to prepare for the winter storage.
On the other hand, it is the demand for post-holiday. It is well known that the Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon has been nearly a month earlier than in previous years; that is to say, after the Spring Festival, the domestic steel market will not be able to usher in better downstream demand as in previous years; Longer periods of demand need to be digested. As a result, the significance of pre-holiday dumping does not seem to be large. No matter whether it is a middle steel trader or a downstream steel company, they have chosen to wait and see. On the one hand, waiting for the further decline in steel prices, to the bottom of the bargain-hunting; the other hand, the market is half-lived for so long, see the situation is unlikely to be a big change, since no money, why pay for the steel mills.
The steel market at the end of the year is not destined to be too calm, but this year's lack of calm is not reflected in the market's firestorm, but the market is too deserted. Near the end of the year, the Dongcun has not moved, and the manufacturers’ production cuts continue. Due to the unsatisfactory market transactions, the social inventory is still increasing in disguise. The willingness of merchants and middlemen to purchase is not strong. The market seems to be waiting for something. Currently, many factors are overshadowed. Affected by the resonance, the market is still weak.
From the perspective of market supply and demand, the impact of rain and snow not only affects transportation, but also has a great influence on the delivery of steel products and construction. Restricted transportation, shortage of goods in some parts of the south, but only part of the specifications, the overall resources are gradually weakening, the main wait-and-see operators, low-cost shipments are not active, and the purchase of steel mills are still on-demand purchases. Before the market transaction showed significant improvement, traders waited and watched with strong sentiment and were more cautious.
In summary, under a wide range of biased negative factors, the business is not optimistic about the market outlook, but the current facts do imply that the steel market is unlikely to improve before the end of the year, according to the current situation, the prospects of the steel market bleak.
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