Domestic oil market stabilizing international oil prices will be high shock

Affected by the spread of the European debt crisis, the poor performance of European and American economic data, and the situation in the Middle East, international oil prices fluctuated at a high level this week (November 25th week). Looking at the overall situation in the week, NYMEX crude oil fell by US$0.64 per barrel to US$96.77 per barrel. Looking ahead, the European debt crisis seems to be in a state of no solution. Iran will also use the energy card to deal with Western countries, and the international oil price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. With regard to the domestic refined oil market, as the price adjustment is expected to decline, the main business will gradually increase the amount of resources to be put in place, and the market resource shortage may gradually ease. It is expected that the domestic refined oil market will stabilize.

The international oil price fluctuated at high levels this week (November 25th week). Under the influence of the long-saw pattern, the market made it difficult for investors to find a foothold. The international oil price also showed a high level of volatility. On the one hand, due to the contagion of the European debt crisis and the poor performance of economic data, market risk aversion has once again increased. On the other hand, due to Iran’s important position in the global crude oil supply market, it has triggered a strong market concern over the current situation in the Middle East and oil prices have been pushed up.

On Monday (November 21), the special committee of the U.S. Congress in charge of reducing deficits stalled on related issues, while Spain’s borrowing costs rose to the highest level since the eruption of the European sovereign debt crisis. Frustrated.

On Tuesday (November 22), although the U.S. economic growth rate in the third quarter was revised downwards more than expected, western countries imposed sanctions on Iran, triggering concerns about tighter supply and pushing up oil prices.

On Wednesday (November 23), although US crude oil inventories fell by 6.619 million barrels as of the week of November 18, the new industrial orders in the euro area fell sharply from the previous month, setting the largest decline since December 2008, and Germany The public bond auctions recorded the worst results since the introduction of the euro. At the same time, HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) hit a 32-month low in early November. Affected by this, international oil prices have fallen. At the close of the day, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) January light low * crude oil ** contract fell 1.84 US dollars / barrel to close at 96.17 US dollars / barrel; London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) January Brent crude fell 2.01 US dollars / barrel, reported 107.02 US dollars / barrel.

On Thursday (November 24), due to the United States Thanksgiving Day, the New York Crude Exchange was closed and the WTI crude oil price was not available for the time being. Due to the increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Iran’s reaction to Western countries’ implementation of a new round of sanctions has attracted attention and provided support for crude oil prices. Brent crude oil prices have risen slightly.

On Friday (November 25), the Iranian nuclear issue may lead to more countries adopting economic sanctions against Iran. The unrest in Egypt, Syria and even Libya continues to increase the uncertainty of oil production in the Middle East. At the same time, due to the European debt crisis and European leaders’ differences in how to solve the debt issue, New York and London markets have come out of different markets.

Relatively insufficient supply of adequate demand caused the international oil price pressure U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected to bring support for international oil prices The week of November 18, 2011, with the US refinery average daily input of crude oil and refinery operating rate increased According to market research, the demand for gasoline in the US fell by 1% from the previous week in the week of November 18, 2011, and the demand was relatively insufficient. Relatively insufficient supply of adequate demand caused the international oil price to be under pressure. In terms of inventory, the decline in U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations and provided support for international oil prices.

On the supply side, the latest data released by EIA showed that the average daily input of crude oil in the United States refinery was about 14,796 barrels per week during the week of November 18, 2011, which was an increase of 117,000 barrels from the average of the previous week; the refinery operating rate increased by 0.7 from the previous week. Percentage point to 85.5%; crude oil production per day was 5,877,000 barrels, which was 0.7 million barrels less than the previous week; average daily gasoline production was 9,256 barrels, an increase of 240,000 barrels over the previous week; daily production of distillate fuel oil was 4,727,200 barrels. Barrels, an increase of 22,000 barrels over the previous week.

On the demand side, according to a report published by MasterCardAdvisors LLC of MasterCard Inc., according to the purchase of gas stations, US gasoline demand was 8.706 million barrels per day for the week ended Nov. 18, which was lower than the previous week. 92,000 barrels, a decrease of 1%.

In terms of inventory, the latest EIA data released shows that, as of November 18, 2011, US commercial oil stocks (excluding SPR) reached 103.801 million barrels, a decrease of 3.895 million barrels from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) was 33.815 million barrels, a decrease of 6.219 million barrels from the previous week; gasoline inventory was 20.694 million barrels, an increase of 4.475 million barrels from the previous week; distillate fuel oil inventory was 132.963 million barrels, a decrease of 77% from the previous week. Millions of barrels; propane/propylene stocks were 59.385 million barrels, a decrease of 235,000 barrels from the previous week.

According to analysts’ average forecast, the US crude oil inventories will be reduced by 300,000 barrels by the week ending November 18, gasoline inventories will increase by 700,000 barrels, and distillate stocks will be reduced by 1.6 million barrels.

It is expected that the international oil price will continue to fluctuate next week. After the domestic refined oil market or stabilization outlook, the debt crisis in Europe seems to be in a state of no solution. Iran will also use energy brands to deal with Western countries, and the international oil price is expected to maintain its shocking pattern. In the short term, the WTI still has support at the US$95/barrel mark, while Brent considers that the European market is more affected by the debt crisis and may be vulnerable to short-term shocks.

In the domestic refined oil market, due to the expected warming in the previous period, the supplier tightens resources, and downstream consumption stocks make up for the resource gap, resulting in a decline in overall social inventories. Although the main post-supply resources have arrived one after another, on the one hand, the market The gap is relatively large. On the other hand, in some regions, there is a large amount of unsold main sales. As a result, resource mitigation progresses slowly. Basically, wholesale sales in all regions are still dominated by control sales, and there has been no significant improvement in the market for the time being.

According to the Treasure Island bulk product e-commerce platform monitoring, this week's domestic gasoline and diesel showed mixed performance, the gasoline line remained stable, and the diesel sector rose slightly. In terms of gasoline, local suppliers and sellers both watched and operated cautiously and prices did not fluctuate significantly, which was the same as last week. As for diesel, the negative diesel price in North China has been rising, which is mainly due to the tight resources. There is still some room for retail diesel. In terms of the index, the average price of 90# gasoline was 8,720 yuan/ton, which was the same as last Friday; the average price of 93# gasoline was 9,441 yuan/ton, which was the same as last Friday; the average price of diesel was 8,342 yuan/ton, up by 5 yuan/ton.

Treasure Island analysts said that the data show that as of November 24, the average price of crude oil in the three places 108.848 US dollars / barrel, the average price of nearly 22 days 111.085 US dollars / barrel, compared with the benchmark price on October 7 rose 3.00%. The price of crude oil in the late period still continues to linger under the hundred-dollar mark, and prices in the three regions may still continue to shrink. The price adjustment is expected to break again. With the expected decline in price adjustment, the main business began to increase the amount of resources, and the problem of market resource shortages may gradually ease. After the petrol of Jiangsu Sinopec resumed wholesale, the price of gasoline may decline; due to the onset of winter in the late period of the North China market, negative demand for diesel oil Or will continue to expand, the latter will gradually relax the main wholesale volume; most of the price area has approached or reached the retail price in place, further upside is limited: South China's northeast refinery due to the transfer of negative diesel, 0 # diesel resources supply is reduced Due to the poor resources in the south of PetroChina, the diesel resources in the later period are still tight, and the main business is busy with settlement at the end of the next week. The sales strategy is unlikely to change, and the market conditions in the early months and early months remain stable. It is expected that the domestic refined oil market will stabilize next week.

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