Coal Chemical Industry: A Bright Future of Reality

The international oil price plummeted, causing an earthquake in the coal chemical industry. On the one hand, it is the construction and planning of projects in full swing, and on the other hand, the gradual narrowing of the competitive advantage has aggravated the external concerns about the economics of coal chemical projects. Although the short-term low oil prices will continue to exert pressure on the coal chemical industry, in the long run, coal chemical industry still has good development prospects.

In the past three years, coal prices have continued to drop sharply, and the economic efficiency of new-type coal chemical industry has been significantly improved. Lower crude oil prices have a greater impact on the profitability of coal-based oil, but the development of coal-based oil will help solve the problem of shortage of crude oil in China and achieve diversification of energy supply methods. The economics of coal gas projects have been relatively poor, the profitability in the era of high oil prices is not obvious, and it should be positioned as one of the paths for clean coal utilization.

Undoubtedly, the continuous plunge in oil prices did indeed pour cold water on the new coal chemical industry. However, the current trend of international oil prices should not have a substantial impact on the promotion of China's new coal chemical projects. Most of the projects have large investment scales and are the established strategies of the national or local government. It is impossible to say that the withdrawal will be withdrawn.

On the other hand, because oil is a non-renewable resource, the sharp fall in international oil prices in 2014 does not necessarily mean that oil prices in the later period will remain low for a long period of time, and coal chemical projects will require longer periods, so when most projects are completed and put into production, international The price of oil may have once again climbed to a high level. Not only that, the domestic demand for oil and gas and basic chemical products is still growing, and coal chemical industry is a useful supplement to petrochemical industry. Therefore, once the international oil price rebounds to normal level, the new coal chemical project will still have more room for development.

In addition, the new coal chemical profit calculation method must focus on various factors to be considered in an integrated manner. It cannot be simply calculated on the basis of raw material costs. Technological factors, equipment stability, policy dividends, raw material procurement and transportation costs must all be taken into consideration. The author believes that it is impossible to completely negate the economics of the new coal chemical industry because of the collapse of crude oil.

From the perspective of development prospects, although there are doubts about environmental protection, water resources, overheated investment, and some technologies that need to be inspected and economical, the acceleration of China’s new coal chemical industry has become comparable to that of North American shale gas. A development model. The rise of coal chemical industry in China and the prosperity and development of shale gas in North America are reflected in each other. The industry generally believes that in the next 5 to 10 years of petrochemical industry development, they will become the two most important forces.

Therefore, as a realistic choice for ensuring the security of China's oil and gas supply and promoting energy structure adjustment, the sudden fall in international oil prices and the adjustment of relevant domestic policies in the short term will not materially affect its established development strategy. Although the reality of the new coal chemical industry is a bone, the future is still bright.