This week base metals on the international market are basically high oscillation, Lun aluminum and therefore the front half of the week has been the main platform consolidation, the market price axis also remain at $ 2450 range, the entire market in China Shanghai aluminum trend of guidelines or Mainly because of the sudden domestic pull up on Thursday, it also led Lon Aluminium to break through the pre-platform and the market once again stood above $2,500.
The domestic market, in the future due to the improvement of early stock price so that there was greater decline, but the market is still delivery in September, showed a price stabilized stabilized trend, the country's overall performance is always to be stronger than London, Formed a weak situation inside and outside. The forward price also saw a significant increase last week.
Domestic and foreign prices continue to be in the vicinity of 8, and the weak pattern of internal and external forces still exists.
The current has returned to near parity 8, the import situation in the international market has improved, but the face of China's rise in aluminum prices, international markets are to follow, with strong external weak pattern persists, there is this situation is mainly from supply of aluminum or from the China factor, this is can not be ignored at any time, although parity has come to pre-high, high level of resistance may make the market have a certain resistance, but tight domestic prices will make aluminum Turning to domestic sales, there will be a certain drop in the price, but we see that the current price ratio is still rising.
Strong spot high premium continues to maintain
The domestic spot aluminum price has risen to above 21,000 yuan/ton in recent days. The sudden tension in the spot market has caused aluminum prices to rise sharply on Thursday afternoon. The market has also changed the pattern of being strong and weak. First of all, we saw that the Shanghai Yangtze River's rise in the recent oscillations was relatively large, the premium and price remained the same, the premium was once pulled to the previous high point, traders' quotations also increased, the consumer disk to undertake The current performance is relatively stable, which also shows that consumers are gradually accepting this price.
After September delivery, the market may use low inventory to re-force positions
We see that due to the September delivery, there has been a certain increase in stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, but this increase has kept the inventory at a lower position. There will be an 11-day vacation right away, and the potential demand for library preparation is a good support for current prices. The bulls may still use the low inventory level to sharply raise the aluminum price again and intend to launch a new squeeze market.
Outlook
Shanghai aluminum futures are expected to continue to rise, focusing on the October contract situation, short-term focus on downstream consumption next week, more than one can continue to hold.
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