As Siemens announced its full withdrawal from nuclear power, McKinsey, the world’s leading management consulting company, predicted the global energy industry in 2050: China will lead the global renewable energy industry, and global demand for nuclear power will increase steadily, while China’s nuclear power Industry will gradually emerge.
This depends on the role of the market mechanism. "Now many companies that rely on policy subsidies will become more and more independent as the market changes in the future," said Wang Ju, general manager of the Shanghai branch of McKinsey.
China’s nuclear power development will lead the world in establishing a highly subdivided model of 34 fuel types, 25 terminal industries, and 21 regions. McKinsey concludes that China is the driving force behind the transition from a global energy structure to sustainable energy.
According to McKinsey’s forecast, China’s newly installed renewable energy capacity will reach 470,000 megabytes (23% of the world’s newly installed renewable energy capacity) in the next 20 years. In the next 20 years, the world’s energy demand will increase significantly, while China’s One-fourth of this will be contributed; liquid fuels will gradually become scarce, and there is an urgent need to dramatically increase energy efficiency and find alternative energy types; the share of electricity in global energy will increase from 16% to 20%, of which renewables It will increase five times; China will lead the world in the development of total power generation, renewable energy and nuclear power.
At the same time, McKinsey's forecast clarifies people's habitual misunderstanding of the global energy landscape in terms of energy supply and demand, energy structure, and China's prospects. Different from the general view that developed countries will promote the growth of energy demand, McKinsey believes that in the next 40 years, emerging markets will account for 90% of the total growth in energy demand, a large part of which comes from China. The recent financial crisis and weak economy will not help alleviate the energy shortage. The agency said that without structural adjustment, the growth of unfettered oil demand will result in a 3% to 5% structural increase by 2020. shortage.
From the perspective of global energy structure, the growth rate of electricity will be about twice the growth rate of total energy demand, the proportion of total energy will increase from 16% to 20% in 2030, and the generation of renewable energy will increase by 2030. At five times, the share of global electricity supply will increase from 4% to 14%. McKinsey believes that the impact of nuclear accidents in Japan and France on the expansion of global nuclear energy is not as large as people think. It believes that the share of nuclear power in total power generation will steadily increase from 2010 to 2030, 47 of which The increase in % will come from China.
In terms of China's energy structure, McKinsey believes that in the next 40 years, the fastest growing demand for energy will be transportation, housing and commercial demand, while the proportion of industrial energy demand will decline. China will be one of the most important innovation bases for renewable energy. By 2030, 23% of the world's new renewable energy production capacity will come from China.
What is rarely known is that as early as two years ago, China had become the world’s largest renewable energy investment country and it is expected that it will continue to maintain this leading position in the next 20 years.
China will still be highly dependent on coal. Despite the development of nuclear power and renewable energy, McKinsey does not believe that China can get rid of coal dependence in the short term. The agency predicts that although the share of coal in China’s electricity supply will fall from 64% to 50 %, but China will still be highly dependent on coal.
Regarding the transformation of nuclear power in the future, "China's nuclear power development is a step that China can take on its diversified energy path. It is just a matter of how the move will be carried out by the government and enterprises," said Wang Ju.
At the same time, the core technologies of renewable energy, such as wind power and solar energy, are not controlled in China. How do companies in the Chinese energy industry show up in the world? "The core technology can be bought, and when it is bought, it depends on the ability of the company to transform it," but Wang Ju emphasized that "not all companies need to buy core technologies. It is not a very appropriate path to rely solely on purchases. Different. Enterprises and different stages of development need to choose different development directions."
The main challenge for Chinese companies in this process is that energy will face upward cost pressures and price fluctuations, the battle for energy will intensify, and global investment will increase substantially to meet the ever-expanding energy demand, and energy efficiency needs to be improved. For Chinese companies to succeed, they need a series of new capabilities: optimizing energy demand and supply, building global capabilities, and building action-oriented DNA.
“The Chinese energy companies go out and just take the land. It is short-sighted. Chinese energy companies must understand what their advantages are. They must learn to use the world’s most advanced technologies and use China’s scale advantages to build on sustainable energy technologies. The real intellectual property rights, said Wang Ju.
This depends on the role of the market mechanism. "Now many companies that rely on policy subsidies will become more and more independent as the market changes in the future," said Wang Ju, general manager of the Shanghai branch of McKinsey.
China’s nuclear power development will lead the world in establishing a highly subdivided model of 34 fuel types, 25 terminal industries, and 21 regions. McKinsey concludes that China is the driving force behind the transition from a global energy structure to sustainable energy.
According to McKinsey’s forecast, China’s newly installed renewable energy capacity will reach 470,000 megabytes (23% of the world’s newly installed renewable energy capacity) in the next 20 years. In the next 20 years, the world’s energy demand will increase significantly, while China’s One-fourth of this will be contributed; liquid fuels will gradually become scarce, and there is an urgent need to dramatically increase energy efficiency and find alternative energy types; the share of electricity in global energy will increase from 16% to 20%, of which renewables It will increase five times; China will lead the world in the development of total power generation, renewable energy and nuclear power.
At the same time, McKinsey's forecast clarifies people's habitual misunderstanding of the global energy landscape in terms of energy supply and demand, energy structure, and China's prospects. Different from the general view that developed countries will promote the growth of energy demand, McKinsey believes that in the next 40 years, emerging markets will account for 90% of the total growth in energy demand, a large part of which comes from China. The recent financial crisis and weak economy will not help alleviate the energy shortage. The agency said that without structural adjustment, the growth of unfettered oil demand will result in a 3% to 5% structural increase by 2020. shortage.
From the perspective of global energy structure, the growth rate of electricity will be about twice the growth rate of total energy demand, the proportion of total energy will increase from 16% to 20% in 2030, and the generation of renewable energy will increase by 2030. At five times, the share of global electricity supply will increase from 4% to 14%. McKinsey believes that the impact of nuclear accidents in Japan and France on the expansion of global nuclear energy is not as large as people think. It believes that the share of nuclear power in total power generation will steadily increase from 2010 to 2030, 47 of which The increase in % will come from China.
In terms of China's energy structure, McKinsey believes that in the next 40 years, the fastest growing demand for energy will be transportation, housing and commercial demand, while the proportion of industrial energy demand will decline. China will be one of the most important innovation bases for renewable energy. By 2030, 23% of the world's new renewable energy production capacity will come from China.
What is rarely known is that as early as two years ago, China had become the world’s largest renewable energy investment country and it is expected that it will continue to maintain this leading position in the next 20 years.
China will still be highly dependent on coal. Despite the development of nuclear power and renewable energy, McKinsey does not believe that China can get rid of coal dependence in the short term. The agency predicts that although the share of coal in China’s electricity supply will fall from 64% to 50 %, but China will still be highly dependent on coal.
Regarding the transformation of nuclear power in the future, "China's nuclear power development is a step that China can take on its diversified energy path. It is just a matter of how the move will be carried out by the government and enterprises," said Wang Ju.
At the same time, the core technologies of renewable energy, such as wind power and solar energy, are not controlled in China. How do companies in the Chinese energy industry show up in the world? "The core technology can be bought, and when it is bought, it depends on the ability of the company to transform it," but Wang Ju emphasized that "not all companies need to buy core technologies. It is not a very appropriate path to rely solely on purchases. Different. Enterprises and different stages of development need to choose different development directions."
The main challenge for Chinese companies in this process is that energy will face upward cost pressures and price fluctuations, the battle for energy will intensify, and global investment will increase substantially to meet the ever-expanding energy demand, and energy efficiency needs to be improved. For Chinese companies to succeed, they need a series of new capabilities: optimizing energy demand and supply, building global capabilities, and building action-oriented DNA.
“The Chinese energy companies go out and just take the land. It is short-sighted. Chinese energy companies must understand what their advantages are. They must learn to use the world’s most advanced technologies and use China’s scale advantages to build on sustainable energy technologies. The real intellectual property rights, said Wang Ju.
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