Guo Wen analyzed that since the fourth quarter of last year, under the influence of a series of macro-control policies of the Chinese government, the current Chinese economy has begun to bottom out.
From the perspective of GDP operation, GDP growth in the first half of last year was 10.4%, and growth in the third quarter was 9%. The growth rate in the fourth quarter fell to 6.8%, and further fell to 6% in the first quarter of this year. one. According to the performance and trend analysis of the main economic indicators in the fourth and fifth months, the GDP in the second quarter is expected to be close to 8%, showing a more obvious rebound. The bottom of this round of economy should be in the fourth quarter of last year and this year. The first quarter.
From the quarterly comparison of GDP estimated by relevant departments, it increased by 2% in the third quarter of last year, by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, by 1.5% in the first quarter of this year, and by 2% in the second quarter. Above, it can be judged that the bottom of this round of economy should be in the fourth quarter of last year.
Guo Wen also analyzed the trend of industrial production and changes in major industrial products, confirming that the most difficult time for the Chinese economy has passed. At the same time, it points out that the foundation for China's economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and there are still many difficulties and challenges in the economic operation. It is necessary to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, further expand domestic demand, stabilize external demand, and consolidate the national economic recovery. The basis for preventing recurrence.
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