"Currently, China's economic restructuring has ushered in a rare opportunity." Lu Zhongyuan, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, made an "economic situation" at the "2011 Directors' Meeting of the Provincial and District Development Research Center" held on July 26. Special Analysis on Analysis and Outlook. In his speech, he said that from the data of the first half of the year, the domestic economic growth rate has stabilized and declined, which is a good opportunity for adjustment and reform.
Lu Zhongyuan said that from the macroeconomic situation in the first half of the year, the short-term correction of economic growth is in the normal range; the overall price level is higher, but the peak is approaching, the pressure is slowing down; the investment growth is relatively stable; the nominal growth rate of consumption is rising steadily, and the actual growth rate is biased. The growth rate of import and export has been steady and declining; the livelihood situation continues to improve (the per capita disposable income of urban areas increased by 7.6% in the first half of the year, up by 0.1 points; the per capita cash income of rural areas increased by 13.7%, up by 4.2 points; the state finances for social security and employment, The investment in health care, housing security and Other people's livelihood increased by 40.5%, 61.4% and 76.6% respectively.
For the outlook of the economic trend in the second half of the year, Lu Zhongyuan believes that the comprehensive factor analysis and model prediction, the annual economic growth can reach 9%, still quite fast; the overall price level is expected to fall back in August, and the price control measures will further produce positive results. However, due to factors such as rising costs, the consumer price index must meet the expected targets for the year, and more efforts are needed; investment and consumption can remain relatively stable; export growth is expected to be around 20%, and the annual trade surplus 140 billion US dollars, the proportion of GDP fell to about 2%.
"From the data point of view, the economic growth rate has stabilized and declined, and the 'soft landing' trajectory has become increasingly clear." Lu Zhongyuan said that industrial production is still volatile and repetitive in the second half of the year, but the decline in industrial capacity utilization has been significantly reduced, and the recovery may be keep growing.
The data shows that in June 2011, the capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 78.9%, which was the same as the average since 2003. Since January this year, the capacity utilization rate has continued to decline, but the decline has been significantly reduced, and the level of capacity utilization has not deteriorated significantly.
At the same time, the State Council Development Research Center's monitoring of 39 industry operations (usually one month behind due to data release) shows that the industry's total prosperity index in May 2011 was 103.1, down 0.8 points from the previous month, two consecutively. The month is obviously a correction, but it is still higher than the historical average since 2002 (101.9).
The National Economic Research Center's macroeconomic sentiment index shows that in June this year, the leading index was 100.5, the first rebound in the past three months, an increase of 0.1 points from the previous month; at the same time, the synchronous index decline further narrowed, this month was 105.3, just higher than The month dropped by 0.01 points.
The important positive signal in June was the first rebound since the first cycle index appeared to have continued to decline since October 2009. If this rebound lasts for another two months, it indicates that our economy will regain a small rebound after the third quarter of this year.
At the same time, the leading diffusion index in June was unchanged from the previous month, but the simultaneous diffusion index rebounded slightly and remained above the 50 critical line. Therefore, the short-term economic correction has not changed the basic trend of faster growth.
Lu Zhongyuan said that although there is no need to worry about the slowdown in short-term economic growth, there are still some outstanding issues that need attention.
First, the world economic growth continues to divide. The possibility of the US launching the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy increases, and the external environment of the Chinese economy still has uncertainties.
Second, the domestic oil shortage and power shortage highlight the urgency of relevant reforms. In April this year, during the peak period of power consumption, there was a power shortage in the country. The NDRC subsequently adjusted the price of electricity, but this adjustment is still controlled by the government's administrative means. Oil shortages and power shortages have highlighted structural contradictions and extensive growth methods. The fundamental reason is that key reforms such as resource prices are not in place.
Third, the financing of small and micro enterprises has once again emerged. The biggest problem for small and micro enterprises at present is the rising cost, coupled with the difficulty of financing, making their survival more difficult.
Fourth, the opportunity for structural adjustment is rare, but the pressure is increasing. The slowdown in economic growth is generally the best time to adjust the structure. At the same time, we are facing the opportunities and challenges of a new round of technological revolution and industrial revolution, and the pressure to accelerate structural adjustment is further increased.
Fifth, financial and financial risks began to emerge. Recently, all sectors of the community have doubts about the risks of local debt. The government has begun to adopt governance measures, but the risks are still highly vigilant.
Regarding the orientation of future economic policies, Lu Zhongyuan suggested that the tone of macroeconomic regulation and control should remain unchanged, but should be targeted and flexible; fiscal policy and monetary policy should work together to stabilize prices, adjust structure, benefit the people's livelihood; and improve policies to expand household consumption. To promote the adjustment of investment structure; to stabilize and fine-tune export policies; to effectively improve the financing environment of small and micro enterprises; to reform the energy supply and price system.
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