Abstract According to customs statistics, in January 2015, China's total import and export 2.09 trillion yuan, down 10.8% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports were 1.23 trillion yuan, down 3.2%; imports were 0.86 trillion yuan, down 19.7%; trade...
According to customs statistics, in January 2015, China’s total import and export value was 2.09 trillion yuan, down 10.8% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 1.23 trillion yuan, down 3.2%; imports were 0.86 trillion yuan, down 19.7%; trade surplus was 366.9 billion yuan, up 87.5%. Exports in January fell to -3.2% from 9.7% in December last year, indicating that external demand pressures remain high. Although the strong US dollar is conducive to China's exports to the United States, the United States' trade protectionism against China has made China's exports to the United States not ideal. Moreover, the history of measures taken by the United States to attract overseas companies and return overseas capital is rare, and it has already exerted tremendous pressure on Chinese capital and foreign companies. At the same time, as the renminbi is almost in value against the euro, the ruble, the yen and the emerging market countries, it is putting pressure on companies exporting to these regions. Exports to these regions have either declined or the net decline has increased.
Imports fell by nearly 20% in January, reflecting a serious downturn in China's domestic demand. Of course, there is no denying the existence of factors that have caused the decline in international commodity prices, but it is mainly a problem of severely weak domestic demand. Combined with the poor PMI data released in the previous period and the first reduction in the past three years, the economic pressure in the first quarter is large.
The trade surplus in January was 366.9 billion yuan, an increase of 87.5%. This is a “declining†surplus in import and export trade, that is, the decline in import trade is much faster than the decline in exports, and the import quota is far less than the export quota. In January, the export quota was 1.23 trillion yuan, the import was 0.86 trillion yuan, and the import and export quota was 370 billion yuan. This is a declining surplus between the import and export ratios.
The General Administration of Customs said that holiday factors such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival will have a greater impact on imports and exports at the beginning of the year. However, New Year's Eve 2014 is January 30th. This year's New Year's Eve is February 18. The enterprise factory was first laid off in early February. According to common sense, it has little effect on the import and export data in January. The import and export activity in January this year should be more than the same period last year. However, customs data showed that the year-on-year growth rate of exports in January fell to -3.2% from 9.7% in December last year, lower than the market expectation of 5.2%; the year-on-year growth rate of imports fell to -19.9% ​​from -2.4% in December last year. , below market expectations of -1.6%. According to customs import data, in January this year, the proportion of imports of aluminum, copper, refined oil and iron ore, which accounted for a large proportion, fell by 49%, 37%, 22% and 9% respectively. It shows that the company has insufficient power to make up the library.
The sharp decline in imports and exports in January indicates that the Chinese economy may not be better in the first quarter. The latest China Foreign Trade Pilot Index was 38.6, which has been declining for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that China's exports are still facing downward pressure in the first quarter and the second quarter of this year. It is a high probability that the decline will continue.
The stall in import and export trade has had a serious impact on the Chinese economy for many years. This is one of the main factors leading to the increasing downward pressure on the Chinese economy. In response to the Chinese economic downturn, we must reverse the situation of foreign trade stalls. From the macroeconomic point of view, it is necessary to continue to increase tax and fee concessions for export enterprises, and deepen the reform of the customs clearance system with the goal of facilitating import and export, high efficiency, and speeding up customs clearance. What needs to be sober is that in response to the Chinese economic downturn, relying on monetary policy to release water is absolutely impossible. This will not only save the Chinese economy, but will also push up China's financial risks. The only way out is to make a large-scale, comprehensive tax reduction and tax reduction, and tax-free free. Active fiscal policy is the main means to deal with the economic downturn and the only effective means.
Monetary policy is not without operational space. It should speed up the reform of the exchange rate system, increase the exchange rate fluctuation, and introduce the market makers of private foreign exchange enterprises, so that the central parity of the RMB is closer to the market. Adapting to changes in the external financial and currency exchange rate markets, it may be wise to moderate the depreciation of the renminbi.
Of course, there is no need for excessive pessimism about China's import and export trade, and there are many favorable factors to promote the speed of development of import and export trade. From a seasonal perspective, foreign trade is expected to pick up in March. From some leading economic indicators, China's export manager index was 41.2 in January, up 0.4 from last December; the new export order index and export enterprise comprehensive cost index also rose 0.9 and 0.7 respectively. This is a sign of improvement in import and export trade after March.
From the perspective of large-scale projects that have a major impact on import and export trade, this year is the year of accelerating the development of numerous projects and measures for trade development along the “Belt and Road†countries, and it has a very large role in promoting imports and exports. The executive meeting of the State Council held earlier clearly stated that it is necessary to promote the “going out†of major equipment and advantageous production capacity, carry out capacity cooperation, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results to form a new foreign trade growth point. This has a great impact on China's exports. In addition, we will promote the construction of foreign trade transformation and upgrading bases; encourage the import of advanced technology equipment and key components, and rationally increase the import of general consumer goods; and cultivate new foreign trade business models such as cross-border e-commerce, market procurement trade, and foreign trade comprehensive service enterprises. Although the import and export trade declined sharply in January, as long as the aforementioned series of measures can be implemented, then China's import and export trade should be able to reverse the trend this year and become a large horsepower carriage that will boost the economy.
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