Since 2009, the national average monthly sales volume of automobiles has exceeded 1 million, which is in stark contrast with the foreign automobile market; wind power and nuclear power projects have appeared on the market, and energy industry investment has grown by considerable scale; Beijing-Shanghai Expressway from Beijing to Shanghai The railway began to work; the aerospace manufacturing industry continued to grow and develop under the national policy. The development of these industries provides a powerful impetus for a new round of growth in the machine tool industry.
From January to August, under the stimulation of domestic demand policy, the machine tool industry bottomed out. The monthly production data has narrowed from the lowest point of -34% to -9%, showing a bottoming out trend, in which CNC machine tools perform better than For ordinary machine tools, the output growth rate of CNC machine tools in August was -5%, while all machine tools were -9%. As China's machine tool exports account for a relatively small proportion, the bottoming out of the machine tool industry is mainly affected by the domestic demand policy.
However, from the perspective of profit indicators, the total profit of the machine tool industry in January-August was still negative year-on-year. Even the negative growth of this index in August increased, which is in sharp contrast with the production indicators, indicating that the basis for the recovery of the machine tool industry is not stable.
From the perspective of the main downstream of the machine tool industry, the automotive industry is the main downstream industry of machine tools. Industry analysis shows that in the first three quarters, driven by relevant policies, China's auto industry has experienced a blowout market, especially in August, when auto production has reached a record high. From the perspective of the machine tool industry and the automobile industry, there was a high agreement between January 2007 and January 2009, but this coincidence relationship deviated after February 2009. The analysis believes that this is due to the lag in capacity expansion of the automotive industry, and this divergence cannot be maintained for a long time. In the fourth quarter, as the production of automobiles increases, this divergence will gradually shrink. Due to the low production base of the machine tool industry in the fourth quarter of 2008, the machine tool industry is expected to achieve positive growth in the fourth quarter.
According to research interviews with industry companies, most companies have increased their current orders, and manufacturers are optimistic about future market demand. In particular, it is worth mentioning that the product line of some high-end products still maintains a hot situation that requires overtime to catch up with products. A person in charge of the machine tool industry said that due to the current industry demand recovery, and the company itself has been taking active measures, the company's product orders have rebounded significantly. He particularly emphasized that in the context of the financial crisis, in order to strengthen their own competitiveness, enterprises will find ways to improve production methods, thus placing higher demands on the quality and performance of machine tools.
At present, almost all manufacturers are sparing no effort to improve product quality. The goal of some powerful enterprises is to gradually fill the gaps in the industry and continuously develop into typical industries such as railway, rail transit and wind power, and tap potential customers. With the gradual recovery of the entire economy, the development of the automotive, construction machinery, electronics, medical equipment and basic parts industries has a huge demand for the machine tool industry. The person in charge believes that in the future, machine tool manufacturers will pay more attention to providing targeted services for users in various industries, which is the future direction of the product.
Fourth, the surrounding market is picking up
Different from the market recovery in March and April this year, although the market is picking up at the time, most manufacturers are not optimistic about the future market, and this kind of optimistic mood is gradually changing. For the future market, although there are many uncertain factors, many manufacturers are optimistic about the future market. The rebound in other machine tool markets in Asia also brings confidence.
The Japan Machine Tool Industry Association (JMTBA) announced on October 8 that the country's machine tool orders in September fell 61.9% year-on-year, up 36.2% month-on-month to 43.295 billion yen. Among them, domestic orders fell 55.6% year-on-year, up 52.6% month-on-month to 19.517 billion yen, and foreign orders fell 65.8% year-on-year, up 25.1% month-on-month to 23.778 billion yen.
According to the latest statistics released by the Korea Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (KOMA), in August 2009, the production value of Korean machine tools was 104.27 billion won (10,000 won was equivalent to 57.25 yuan), which was 11.42% lower than that in July. The decrease was 51.2%; but the new machine tool orders were 136.527 billion won, up 13.35% from July.
It is reported that Korean machine tool orders have experienced a rapid decline since the second half of 2008, reaching a minimum in January 2009. Since then, since February this year, South Korea's machine tool orders have begun to pick up slowly, mainly due to the gradual stabilization of the international market, as well as the continuous recovery of large-scale machinery such as domestic shipbuilding and wind power generation and the growth of demand in the electrical and electronic industry.
It should be noted that the pick-up of orders is steady and promising. The steady recovery of the various industries in the manufacturing industry further indicates that the real economy has indeed gradually improved.
In addition, from the main raw material--steel price operation trend, China's steel production capacity is currently over-supplied, and the pressure on steel prices in the fourth quarter is relatively small. Therefore, the machine tool industry has more room for profit in the fourth quarter, which will benefit machine tool enterprises. Profitability.
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